By Faith Eherts, AccuWeather meteorologist
By Robert Richards, AccuWeather meteorologist
September 30, 2018, 8:17:42 PM EDT
Rosa is expected to batter far northwestern Mexico with gusty winds and flooding rainfall on the first day of October.
Among the communities in the path of Rosa is Mexicali, the region's capital, which normally receives about 7 mm (0.3 of an inch) of rainfall during the entire month of October. The city could be inundated with as much as three times this amount in just one day as Rosa impacts the area early this week.
Rosa is expected to turn northeastward and make landfall along Baja California's Pacific Coast on Monday evening. Due to the cooler waters along its path, Rosa is anticipated to be a tropical storm when it moves onshore.
Coastal conditions will remain hazardous for small craft and swimmers. Anyone vacationing in a coastal community should pay attention to local officials and avoid going in the water.
Rosa will further lose wind intensity as it moves inland and interacts with the region's steep terrain.
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Regardless, flooding rainfall will continue to be a threat as the system moves through northern Baja California and into the American Southwest.
Mountainous areas will be subject to flash flooding and mudslides, where over 100 mm (4 inches) of rainfall could fall Monday and Monday night.
More significant travel disruptions can occur south of Ensenada to Rosarito. Poor visibility, standing water and washed-out roads could pose a threat to any motorists.
Combined with gusty winds, this weather could lead to downed trees and power lines, power outages and damage to poorly constructed buildings.
Just south of San Diego, the cities of Tijuana and Ensenada are expected to escape the heaviest rainfall; however, showers can still dampen the city.
"Any rain that is enough to wet roads can create slippery conditions as the rain mixes with oil residue left behind during the recent dry months," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.
Northwestern Mexico will turn drier on Tuesday as Rosa continues to unload heavy rain on the Southwest states of the U.S.
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