By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
August 06, 2018, 7:53:52 PM EDT
Hurricane John and Tropical Storm Ileana are expected to strengthen and impact parts of Mexico this week.
While both tropical cyclones are forecast to remain offshore, impacts ranging from enhanced downpours to gusty winds and dangerous seas and surf will affect parts of western Mexico and Baja California.
Ileana will track just offshore of the western coast of Mexico into Tuesday, bringing strong winds and enhanced rainfall to coastal portions of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.
Power outages and tree damage are possible, while heavy rain will produce localized flooding and enhance the risk for mudslides.
“Iliana will produce tropical-storm-force winds late tonight and tomorrow for coastal areas of Mexico,” said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
“Hurricane-force winds will not be far offshore,” added Kottlowski.
Ileana will also produce dangerous seas, surf and rip currents along the coast of Mexico from Guerrero to Jalisco through Tuesday.
Ileana will then weaken and likely be absorbed into the bigger and more powerful John on Wednesday.
While impacts from Ileana will end, John is expected to continue strengthening into a powerful hurricane as it tracks parallel to the Mexico coastline into Thursday.
John may become a major hurricane with sustained winds over 200 km/h (125 mph).
Fortunately, the dangerous cyclone will remain offshore and bring no risk for wind or rainfall to Mexico through Friday.
John will still pose a serious risk to life as it produces dangerous seas and surf along southern- and western-facing coasts of Baja California from Wednesday into Friday.
John will weaken as it continues to track to the northwest, passing west of Baja California late this week.
Southern California waves may build late this week
John is forecast to outlast and out-strengthen Ileana and move far enough away from the coast of Mexico to allow waves to propagate well to the north.
John is likely to be in a position to send waves northward to the beaches and coastal waters of Southern California as early as Friday, but more likely during the weekend.
Southern California waves will likely be at their lowest point, 2-4 feet, on Wednesday. Waves may build to 4-8 feet and perhaps locally higher this weekend, depending on the strength of either John or Ileana.
The large waves will be a hazard for small craft and can create dangerous surf for bathers. Minor coastal flooding may also occur due to overwash from the bigger waves.
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