By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
August 17, 2018, 9:51:47 AM EDT
Residents across parts of the United Kingdom will want to keep wellies and brollies handy as Ernesto sweeps rain through this weekend.
After becoming a tropical storm over the northern Atlantic Ocean, Ernesto will track over much colder water and lose its tropical characteristics as it approaches the U.K.
"Ernesto is also expected to merge with a front and then bring gusty winds and rainy weather to parts of the U.K. this weekend," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
Ernesto should not resemble a powerful windstorm (as was the case with Ophelia last October) when it reaches the British Isles. Instead, it will prove to be more of a nuisance to most residents and travelers.
Ernesto can bring about a 12-hour dousing of rain to Northern Ireland, southern Scotland and northern England Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Rainfall totals should remain below 25 mm (an inch) in most communities. There can be an AccuWeather Local StormMax of 50 mm (2 inches), mainly along the west- and southwest-facing slopes of the hills. These higher totals can trigger isolated flash flooding.
Even in the absence of flooding, drivers should anticipate slower travel on area motorways. Downpours can reduce visibility, and standing water can heighten the risk of vehicles hydroplaning when travel at higher speeds.
Anyone with Saturday evening plans in Belfast may want to incorporate wellies and brollies into their attire. An odd shower or two may linger across Northern Ireland to end the weekend.
The steadiest rain is expected overnight in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Carlisle. Rainy spells may put a damper on those heading to church services Sunday morning from southern Scotland and northern England to Wales.
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Most of the rain is expected to remain north of London with only an odd shower anticipated on Sunday afternoon. Any shower that reaches Maldon, the site of this weekend’s Smoke and Fire Festival, should hold off until Sunday evening.
In addition to the rain, Ernesto will kick up gusty winds south of its track. Peak gusts should generally be held to 30-40 mph (48-64 km/h) across Wales and western England. Southwest-facing coastal and exposed areas will be most susceptible to the highest winds.
Such winds can toss around loose lawn items and stir choppy seas in the Celtic and Irish seas Saturday night into Sunday morning.
In the wake of Ernesto, showery spells can dampen mainly northern and western parts of the U.K. early next week.
Warmth, meanwhile, will build back across the Midlands and southeastern England with temperatures reaching or exceeding 25 C (77 F).
Looking ahead to autumn, mild weather is expected to kick off the season before a stormy pattern unfolds.
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