Weather Outside Your Window

Sunday, October 31, 2021

Wanda forms, becoming Atlantic's first named storm in a month

The Atlantic has been quiet since Tropical Storm Victor dissipated in early October. Now, Wanda has broken the calm streak and AccuWeather forecasters are tracking another area for possible development.

By Jessica Storm, AccuWeather Meteorologist & Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

Updated Oct. 31, 2021 6:58 PM EDT

A nor'easter that pounded the mid-Atlantic and New England at the start of last week has since drifted out over the open northern Atlantic. But its journey isn't quite complete yet. What's left of the storm has organized into what is now Subtropical Storm Wanda, taking the final name on the list for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season.

The Atlantic had not had a named storm in its waters since Victor formed over the far eastern part of the basin on Sept. 29 and prowled the open seas until dissipating Oct. 4.

As of late Sunday evening, Wanda was about 900 miles (1,445 km) west of the Azores. It had sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) and was moving to the east at 1 mph (2 km/h).

This satellite image, captured midday Sunday EDT, shows Subtropical Storm Wanda in the Atlantic Ocean (GOES Imagery).

"Wanda is a bit different from some other storms this season like Ida and Henri because Wanda is a subtropical cyclone rather than a tropical one," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Lauren Hyde.

While tropical storms often develop in warmer waters, subtropical storms will more likely form in relatively lukewarm waters. Another difference between the two types of systems is that subtropical storms do not typically become as intense as tropical storms or hurricanes, though both can bring dangerous impacts like rough seas, damaging winds and flooding rain.

"Environmental conditions are expected to sustain Wanda at subtropical storm strength for the next few days, but are not favorable enough to further strengthen Wanda significantly," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Thomas Geiger.

Fortunately, Wanda is not expected to impact land, though shipping interests should prepare for rough seas in its path.

"Wanda is forecast to take a southeastward turn today before tracking northeastward late Monday or early Tuesday towards cooler waters," explained Geiger.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, another tropical disturbance near the coast of Africa was being tracked by AccuWeather forecasters. This tropical wave was located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and was given a low chance for development during the next 48 hours.

Geiger noted that the development of this wave would be a fairly rare occurrence, as historically tropical cyclones don't typically form south of the Cabo Verde Islands during late October or early November.

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If this wave develops into a tropical storm, it would also likely be the first ever to take a name on the supplemental name list that was instituted in place of the Greek alphabet by the World Meteorological Organization. This new name list was developed after the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active, causing the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to dip into the Greek Alphabet in order to name extra storms.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced the Greek alphabet will not be used in the future because doing so "creates a distraction from the communication of hazard and storm warnings and is potentially confusing." The first name on this new list is Adria.

Scientists discover possible exoplanet outside of our galaxy

By Adriana Navarro, AccuWeather staff writer

Updated Oct. 31, 2021 5:26 PM EDT

Scientists may have located a new planet located outside of not only our solar system but also our galaxy.

This exoplanet candidate is located in Messier 51 (M51), also known as the Whirpool Galaxy, and was detected by the Chandra X-ray Observatory, NASA announced on Oct. 25. An exoplanet is a planet outside of our own solar system, and if this celestial body is confirmed as one, then it would be the first discovered outside of the Milky Way Galaxy.

All other exoplanets found have been located less than 3,000 light-years from Earth. This new discovery is 28 million light-years from our planet.

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To find the exoplanet candidate, scientists used a new method of searching that relied on looking for the celestial bodies at X-ray wavelengths.

"We are trying to open up a whole new area for finding other worlds by searching for planet candidates at X-ray wavelengths, a strategy that makes it possible to discover them in other galaxies," said Rosanne Di Stefano of the Center for Astrophysics via the statement released by NASA. Di Stefano had led the study, which was published on Oct. 25 in Nature Astronomy.

A composite image of M51, also known as the Whirlpool Galaxy, with X-rays from Chandra and optical light from NASA's Space Telescope. (NASA/CXC/SAO/R. DiStefano, et al.; Optical: NASA/ESA/STScI/Grendler)

(NASA/CXC/SAO/R. DiStefano, et al.; Optical: NASA/ESA/STScI/Grendler)

The process lies in identifying an object's transit, or its passage of a planet in front of a star, which blocks some of the star's light and produces a "characteristic dip," the NASA statement explained. While looking for dips in optical light has helped find thousands of planets, Di Stefano and colleagues instead looked for dips in the brightness of X-rays received from binary systems bright with X-rays, or systems with two stars that usually contain a neutron star or black hole pulling in gas from the companion star, according to NASA. Materials near the neutron star or black hole become superheated and glow in X-rays in a confined area, so when a planet passes in front of it, the planet could block most or all of the X-rays.

This method could allow scientists to locate exoplanets at greater distances than current optical light transit studies, according to NASA.

Within the binary system M51-ULS-1, located in M51, a neutron star or a black hole orbits a companion star believed to have a mass about 20 times that of the sun. It was in this system where an X-ray transit lasted about three hours, decreasing the X-ray emissions to zero, according to NASA's statement. This along with other information led researchers to estimate the exoplanet candidate to be roughly the size of Saturn, orbiting the neutron star or black hole about twice the distance of Saturn from the sun.

However, it's expected to take at least 70 years to confirm if this exoplanet candidate is actually a planet as scientists wait to see if it completes an orbit.

"Unfortunately to confirm that we're seeing a planet we would likely have to wait decades to see another transit," said co-author Nia Imara of the University of California at Santa Cruz. "And because of the uncertainties about how long it takes to orbit, we wouldn't know exactly when to look."

Researchers consider it unlikely that the dimming was caused by a cloud of gas and dust passing in front of the X-ray source as the data is more consistent with the model of a planet candidate, but even so, a solid answer likely won't be confirmed for several decades.

"We know we are making an exciting and bold claim so we expect that other astronomers will look at it very carefully," said co-author Julia Berndtsson of Princeton University in New Jersey. "We think we have a strong argument, and this process is how science works."

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California reservoirs inch higher after bomb cyclone, additional help on the way

There's still a long ways to go before normalcy returns, but additional rounds of rain and mountain snow will continue to benefit California reservoirs this week.

By Brandon Buckingham, AccuWeather Meteorologist

Updated Oct. 31, 2021 1:13 PM EDT

It's going to take a lot more than one storm to erase the long-term drought across California, but the former bomb cyclone that marched into the West Coast sure did help. While another storm of that magnitude is not expected to slam into the West Coast this upcoming week, there will be multiple rounds of wet weather that will continue to trend things in the right direction.

Many of California's reservoirs were at historically low levels prior to the arrival of an atmospheric river of moisture between Oct. 24 and Oct. 25. For a short time, Lake Oroville's hydroelectric power plant had to cease operations due to the low water levels, but thanks to heavy rainfall across the Feather River watershed (the river system that flows into Lake Oroville), the power plant has since reopened.

Dry hillsides surround Lake Oroville on Saturday, May 22, 2021, in Oroville, Calif. At the time of this photo, the reservoir was at 39 percent of capacity and 46 percent of its historical average. Lake levels continued to drop throughout the summer, falling to its current level at 28% capacity as of October 30, 2021 (AP Photo/Noah Berger).

The amount of water that rushed into Lake Oroville was staggering in the wake of the bomb cyclone, offering hope to some that the drought conditions may ease. Prior to the influx of rain, the lake level stood at 629 feet above sea level, but just 8 days later on Oct. 30, the lake level now stands at 659 feet -- a rise of 30 feet in just over a week.

Lake Tahoe also observed a massive influx of water from the recent stormy conditions. Earlier in October, lake levels had fallen below the natural rim, meaning that the lake was no longer connected to its only outlet, the Truckee River. Now, after heavy rain and feet of snow in the mountains, the lake levels have passed about an inch above the natural rim, allowing water to flow into the river.

There's still a long way to go however, as the lake is considered full when water levels are around 6 feet above the natural rim.

Many other lakes and reservoirs have seen impressive jumps in lake levels, including Folsom Lake which has jumped 19 feet higher, and Lake Shasta -- California's largest reservoir -- rose 3 feet after the deluge of rainfall.

Reservoir conditions across the state of California as of Oct. 30. Most reservoirs remain well-below their historical averages (California Department of Water Resources).

Although the recent rain has been great news for reservoir levels, there's still a very long way to go in order to ease drought and water-usage concerns. Luckily, this upcoming week will feature additional chances for rain and mountain snow along the West coast.

Monday will bring along the first round of rain and mountain snow to the West Coast as a storm will be set to trek inland. Appreciable rainfall will generally be limited to the San Francisco Bay Area and points north from this storm, leaving the remainder of Central and Southern California dry.

Wet weather will work its way inland throughout the day on Monday, expanding along the Interstate 5 corridor from Northern California up through Washington State. Along the route, cities like Medford, Eugene, Salem and Portland, Oregon, can expect a wet commute as the storm passes by.

Rainfall will not be nearly as heavy as the bomb cyclone a week or so ago, but a general 0.50 of an inch to perhaps up to 2 inches of rain can fall across the coastal ranges of Northern California by the time wet weather tapers off and shifts inland Tuesday morning.

A majority of the wet and wintry weather will shift into the Intermountain West by Tuesday, bringing along another fresh coating of snow for the mountainous terrain of the central Rockies.

Conditions may reach winter weather advisory criteria in places like Yellowstone National Park, Grand Teton National Park, Utah's Uinta Mountains and across the mountains of northern Colorado. Any hazardous conditions should remain rather brief in these places, as dry weather is expected Wednesday as an area of high pressure builds in.

It won't take long for another storm to target the West Coast this upcoming week, as another, potentially more potent disturbance is expected to roll in late Wednesday into Thursday.

This will likely target many of the same areas as the early-week storm, generally from Central California and points north.

More weather news:

Plains, Midwest to shiver in coldest conditions since spring

A dramatic cooldown will send temperatures plummeting to the low 30s in major cities, sending residents of the Plains and Midwest scurrying for their coats ahead of the chilliest conditions since April.

By Jessica Storm, AccuWeather Meteorologist

Updated Oct. 31, 2021 7:50 PM EDT

Residents of the Plains and Midwest may be grabbing their coats and hats this week as a dramatic cooldown chills the region. This will arrive after higher-than-average temperatures warmed the region for weeks at the beginning of autumn.

"After a considerably warm start to the fall season, a cold front drawing air from northern Canada will finally dip into the northern U.S. this week," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Rinde.

This cold front will envelop major cities around the Great Lakes, including Chicago and Detroit, while also dipping far enough south to chill residents in Omaha, Nebraska. Low temperatures in the Windy City are forecast to dive into the low-30s at the start of this week, temperatures that haven't been seen since April.

"This cold front will spread some of the coldest weather of the season so far and only felt as recently as this past spring," Rinde said.

Rapid City, South Dakota, has seen temperatures hang around 4 degrees F above average since late September. Come Monday, they could have temperatures diving into the upper teens. Several other cities in the High Plains could also see dips into the lower 20s for multiple nights.

"While this colder push will be considerably lower than recent days and thus far this season, temperatures will actually fall pretty close to average for the early part of November," said Rinde.

Despite temperatures floating around normal, this first chill is expected to feel particularly potent, since residents have not yet adjusted to the lower temperatures that arrive this time of year. Heating costs are likely to soar this week for the first time since last spring.

"The colder air will set up a possible conveyor of unsettled weather through the central Plains into the Middle Atlantic," Rinde explained.

On Halloween, snow and rain have been observed streaking out into the Plains, impacting mainly western South Dakota and Nebraska. Then, precipitation is likely to expand farther into Nebraska and Kansas on Halloween night. As temperatures cool, a swath of 1-3 inches of snow is expected to extend from southeastern Wyoming into central Nebraska.

The snow will likely taper off to a few chilly rain showers on Monday as the area of unsettled weather shifts into the Midwest.

Farther south, rain will likely begin to blossom by Tuesday in the southern Plains, before becoming more widespread by midweek.

"The most intense precipitation and thunderstorm potential exists in the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, especially on Wednesday, which will raise concerns for localized flash flooding," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys.

Much of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will likely be shielded from precipitation as a dip in the jet stream steers the storm around to the Northeast instead, but areas by the Great Lakes should keep an eye out this week.

"It is that time of year where these systems have the potential for some decent snowfall due to the available moisture during the fall months," Rinde added.

This flow, in combination with the cold air in place over the Great Lakes, can also cause some lake-effect snow, especially off the northwestern Great Lakes.

"Some of this snow could accumulate in the overnight hours," added Roys.

As the week comes to a close, the potential for storms continues across the region, especially in southern areas.

"There is the potential for another round of enhanced precipitation across the southern Plains, Gulf Coast and Southeast next weekend as a storm tracks eastward," said Roys.

More to see:

Weather Outside Your Window

Sunday, October 31, 2021

Wanda forms, becoming Atlantic's first named storm in a month

Scientists discover possible exoplanet outside of our galaxy

California reservoirs inch higher after bomb cyclone, additional help on the way

Plains, Midwest to shiver in coldest conditions since spring

Man missing at sea for nearly 2 weeks found alive in life raft off Washington coast

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