Early evening meteor shower to peak Friday

 By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and staff writer

Updated Oct. 7, 2021 12:16 PM EDT

The end of the week will bring the first meteor shower of autumn, a natural light show that will be the first of many that take place throughout the season.

The Draconid meteor shower will reach its climax Friday night in the sky across the Northern Hemisphere; this is a great event to kick off the weekend for folks who find themselves under a cloud-free sky.

The most recent meteor shower to grace the sky was the popular Perseids, which peaked in mid-August.

The Draconids are known for occasional outbursts when onlookers can count over 100 meteors in an hour. In 2011, observers across Europe tallied over 600 meteors per hour, according to EarthSky.

A spectacle of that nature is unlikely to unfold this year; closer to 5 to 10 shooting stars per hour are expected with the next outburst not likely until 2025.

Even though this is a lower hourly rate than most meteor showers, the timing of the event is what makes it enticing.

“These meteors are best seen just as soon as it becomes dark,” the American Meteor Society explained, adding that the meteors tend to move slowly across the sky.

This is one of the few annual meteor showers that is most active in the evening hours, making the Draconids an ideal event for younger stargazers or anyone that cannot stay up late Friday night. Most meteor showers do not reach their height until the second half of the night after 2 a.m., local time.

A person stands on a cliff as a meteor streaks across the sky nearby. (gustavito1917)

Those that plan on viewing the Draconids this year should put a reminder in their calendar now since it is a short-lived event.

Most meteor showers have broad peaks that last two or three nights, but the Draconids have a sharp peak that only occurs from the night of Oct. 8 into Oct. 9, according to EarthSky.

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Hunting for shooting stars on Friday night could be challenging across parts of North America due to clouds and rain, with poor viewing conditions likely from the beaches of North Carolina, through the Great Lakes and across Ontario and into Quebec.

Clouds are also predicted to obscure the sky across the northern Rockies, northern Plains and parts of the Canadian Prairies.

Cloud-free conditions will lead to great viewing conditions across the interior Southwest, parts of the southern Plains and across most of the Mississippi River Valley. A break in the clouds could also lead to favorable conditions for stargazers across northern New England.

The name of this week’s meteor shower comes from the constellation Draco the dragon, which can be seen in the northwestern sky just above the Big Dipper after nightfall.

Although shooting stars associated with the Draconids originate from near the constellation Draco, they can be seen streaking across all areas of the sky.

For the best chance at spotting some meteors, it is best to find a dark area with a wide view of the sky and to avoid looking at any sources of light, such as a cell phone screen.

After the Draconids, stargazers will not have to wait long for the next opportunity to spot some shooting stars as the Orionid meteor shower will peak later in October.

More meteor showers are in the offing come November, including the Southern Taurids, the Northern Taurids and the Leonids.

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Dallas, OKC among cities at risk for dangerous severe weather

 By Mary Gilbert, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Oct. 7, 2021 8:46 PM EDT

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Following a warm but tranquil start to the month for the south-central United States, AccuWeather forecasters are warning that the extended lull in severe weather will soon come to an end.

"A disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere will move through the West this weekend and spur the development of a potent storm in the south-central U.S.," AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Sadvary explained.

Many locations across the southern Plains began the month warmer than normal, and AccuWeather forecasters say the unseasonable heat forecast to build over the region late this week will only make the region more susceptible to explosive storm activity.

“Cool, dry air from out of the Rockies is expected to clash in the southern Plains with warm, moist air originating from the Gulf," Sadvary said. "These ingredients will lead to a battleground of severe weather."

While thunderstorms can begin to rumble to life earlier in the day on Sunday, the most potent storms are expected to develop later Sunday afternoon or even closer to Sunday evening. These storms are forecast to push eastward into the overnight hours and may even remain hazardous into early Monday.

The area with the greatest risk of severe weather late this weekend includes portions of northeastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas and western Arkansas. Multiple major metropolitan areas are within the area of greatest concern.

Forecasters are urging residents of places like Oklahoma City and the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex as well as travelers along large portions of interstates 30, 35 and 40 to closely monitor the weather for rapidly changing conditions on Sunday.

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All facets of severe weather will be possible. Flooding downpours, damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes can accompany the strongest storms on Sunday.

“Anyone in the south-central U.S. should pay close attention to the forecast, as small changes in the forecast area and storm intensity may occur,” Sadvary cautioned.

With the bulk of the severe thunderstorms predicted to erupt later Sunday into Monday morning, this can present additional dangers for residents in the path of these potent storms.

Severe weather that occurs at night presents additional hazards. A large portion of the population sleeps during the overnight hours, so it is important that people at risk to get severe weather have multiple ways to receive potentially life-saving weather alerts in order to find shelter in a moment's notice.

Storm damage, including downed trees and powerlines, and flooded roadways can be difficult, or even impossible, to spot in the dark. Forecasters urge that anyone who must travel during severe weather to allow plenty of extra travel time and plan alternate routes in case certain roadways become impassible.

After the severe threat diminishes, a much calmer day is in the forecast for the South Central states on Monday. However, residents may not have long to catch their breath before a new threat roars to life.

AccuWeather forecasters are monitoring the development of another potent storm with the capability to produce severe weather for portions of the Plains beginning Tuesday.

"This storm system has the potential to be more widespread across the central U.S., and any cleanup efforts that may result from the first wave of storms could be short-lived," Sadvary explained.

Severe weather activity can spike during the fall

Many across the U.S. may typically associate the spring and summer months with the development of severe weather, but fall is capable of being just as potent.

The spring season represents the largest peak in frequency of severe weather activity for the United States, but meteorologists say that there is a secondary, smaller peak that occurs during the fall season.

The southern tier of the U.S. is often the greatest area of concern for severe weather in the fall months.

During the autumn, chilly air is ushered southward as cold fronts dive into the South and collide with the steamy air that flows northward out of the Gulf of Mexico. When these two contrasting air masses meet, the results are often explosive.

"While the most common area for severe weather in the fall ranges from Texas to Georgia, some storms occasionally impact areas farther north, including the central Plains and the Mississippi Valley," AccuWeather Meteorologist and Staff Writer Brian Lada explained.

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Oil spill could take emotional toll amid environmental disaster

 By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and staff writer

Updated Oct. 7, 2021 1:32 PM EDT

It has been nearly a week since oil began seeping into the Pacific Ocean just miles off the coast of Southern California, and the impacts of that the oil spill may reach beyond the coastal environment.

Amplify Energy Corp. first noticed a drop in pressure in an underwater oil pipeline early in the morning on Saturday, Oct. 2. Since then, it is estimated that between 30,000 and 126,000 gallons of oil have spewed into the coastal waters, The Associated Press reported.

One of the leading theories behind the cause of the oil spill is that a ship’s anchor struck the underwater pipeline, but officials have yet to determine the exact cause of the environmental disaster.

Several beaches have been closed along the coast near the site of the oil spill, including Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Newport Harbor and Laguna Beach.

“Huntington and Newport are very popular for swimming, sailing and surfing,” Professor Lawrence Palinkas told AccuWeather Multimedia Journalist Jillian Angeline. Palinkas works at the University of Southern California School of Social Work and has looked into the human impact of the oil spill.

“The water at this point is quite toxic. Surfers have been advised not to go out in the water,” he said.

USC Professor Lawrence Palinkas talking about the oil spill off the coast of Southern California. (AccuWeather / Jillian Angeline)

While the environment is taking the biggest toll from the oil spill, it has far-reaching impacts beyond the beaches.

“There will be individuals who will feel a sense of loss over the degradation of the environment,” Palinkas said.

Solastalgia can occur during any event, either natural or human-created, that damages the environment or landscape. This includes events such as wildfires, drought, flooding or tornadoes.

People who have these emotional reactions to the oil spill are experiencing what is known as solastalgia. This can occur when people experience a loss in the physical environment, and it can lead to depression or anxiety.

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While the full scope of the ongoing oil spill is still being assessed, people such as Dr. Nancy Kinner are already gathering information that can be used to help the environment in the long term. Kinner works at the Coastal Response Research Center, which coordinates with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration when events like these unfold.

“Oil spills are bad; they’re never good. What we’re trying to do in response is make them the least bad we can,” Kinner told Angeline. Acting quickly is key to protecting as much as possible from the spreading oil and to lessening the severity that the spill has across the ecosystem.

Cleanup crews are currently using mobile barriers called booms that sit in the water and prevent the oil from reaching areas such as marshes, canals, beaches and other coastal environments.

A floating barrier known as a boom is set up to try to stop further incursion into the Wetlands Talbert Marsh after an oil spill in Huntington Beach, Calif., on Huntington Beach, Calif., on Monday, Oct. 4, 2021. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)

“Right now, there are scientists from NOAA and from state agencies and from Fish and Wildlife that are out gathering information, baseline information from unoiled areas and information from oiled areas,” Kinner said.

The response team is not only worried about the immediate death of birds and fish but also the impacts to the wildlife that could lead to harm in the aftermath of the disaster.

“The organisms that are not killed but have damage to them that impacts their ability to reproduce, that impacts their ability to swim, and you can imagine if you cannot swim that fast because you’ve been impacted by oil, you are now more likely to become eaten,” Kinner said.

It’s important to know not only what has been damaged but also how to help restore the environment to the state that it was in before the oil spill occurred, Kinner explained. This involves a damage assessment and funds that are provided by the party responsible for the oil spill.

Dr. Nancy Kinner talking about the environmental impact of oil spills. (AccuWeather / Jillian Angeline)

The weather plays a major role in the damage assessment, especially across the coastal environment.

“There are a lot of weather factors that will influence how widely distributed the oil is and whether or not it will require extended closures of beaches,” Palinkas said.

This includes weather variables such as wind direction and ocean swells.

An aerial photo shows workers in protective suits cleaning the contaminated beach after an oil spill in Newport Beach, Calif., on Wednesday, Oct. 6, 2021. A major oil spill off the coast of Southern California fouled popular beaches and killed wildlife while crews scrambled Sunday, to contain the crude before it spread further into protected wetlands. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)

The scope of this oil spill pales in comparison to the Deep Water Horizon, which spewed around 134 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.

“Even though the spill may seem small in comparison to spills that we’ve experienced over the past 30 to 40 years, it still constitutes a significant impact on the Southern California coastline,” Palinkas said.

It is the biggest oil spill in Southern California since the Santa Barbara oil spill in the late 1960s, which helped to set off the modern environmental movement.

Reporting by Jillian Angeline.

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What is La Nina?

 From the sun and sand of Southern California to the mountainous, snowy landscapes of New England, the climatological phenomenon known as La Niña can have a major impact on how winter weather unfolds across the United States.

By Mary Gilbert, AccuWeather meteorologist

The term La Niña may be one that casual weather observers as well as aficionados hear meteorologists using from time to time, especially when breaking down long-term weather trends or providing a sneak peek at conditions expected during an upcoming winter or hurricane season. But, what exactly is La Niña? Let's take an in-depth look.

The key to how winter in the United States may unfold often lies thousands of miles away in the open waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It's there where the roots of a climatological phenomenon known as La Niña originate and eventually help shape weather patterns worldwide.

The pattern occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean drop to lower-than-average levels for an extended amount of time. This process is the exact opposite of El Niño, a phase in which sea surface temperatures rise to above-average levels.

La Niña, which translates to "little girl" in Spanish, and El Niño, which translates to "little boy" in Spanish, are two phases of a three-pronged natural climate pattern that occurs across a large portion of the tropical Pacific Ocean known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO's three phases are broken down into La Niña's cool phase, El Niño's warm phase and a phase that is neither warm nor cool, known as neutral.

Meteorologists often refer to the effects of climate patterns using a concept known as teleconnections. Teleconnections are a series of factors, like sea surface temperatures, that can have implications on weather conditions in areas far from the origin of those factors.

Want to know what the weather will be like in a few days? According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Joe Bauer, people who live in the United States can often just look to the west.

"Most of the weather the U.S. experiences first has to travel across the Pacific Ocean," Bauer explained.

The weather impacts of La Niña in the U.S. are often most apparent during the winter, although the climate pattern typically lasts nine months to a year and can occasionally last for years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

So, how can La Niña, a phenomenon that occurs thousands of miles away, influence weather in the U.S.? The cooler water in the equatorial Pacific can help to amplify the northern jet stream, also known as the polar jet stream, which is a major driver in where storms track across the country during winter. A more potent polar jet stream ushers in colder air and more frequent storms across the northern tier of the nation. At the same time, the pattern also weakens the southern jet stream, known as the subtropical jet stream, and often results in drier and milder weather across southern areas of the U.S.

One of the tell-tale signs of a La Niña winter is wetter-than-normal weather across the Pacific Northwest. Typically, western Canada and the northwestern U.S. endure the stormiest conditions during a La Niña winter. However, the storms generally lose intensity as they travel over the northern Rockies. If a storm is potent enough, it can reach farther eastward and deliver snow to portions of the Midwest or the Great Lakes region. However, on average, the storms during a La Niña winter lack enough moisture to produce a major storm for areas farther east of the Great Lakes.

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Even though stronger storms may not make it past the Rockies as frequently, a greater number of weak storms may navigate across the Midwest and Great Lakes. This can keep snowfall totals at normal or even above-normal levels with many smaller events occurring, rather than a blockbuster snowstorm or two.

Winter in the Northeast is extremely variable during a La Niña phase, with conditions ranging from colder and drier to mild and stormier.

While an El Niño pattern can fuel streams of moisture into California, a typical La Niña winter prevents storms from delivering snow and rain to the region.

"During a moderate to strong La Niña, Southern California can run drier than normal throughout the wet season, leading to more drought conditions," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

Similar concerns exist for much of the Southwest during a La Niña winter.

"As the active storm track remains displaced well to the north, the Southwest typically stays warm and dry," Bauer explained.

With a less potent southern jet stream, mild conditions are able to span from the Four Corners region to the Southeast and even north into parts of the mid-Atlantic during a La Niña winter.

La Niña's role in Atlantic hurricane season

It's not just during winter that La Niña makes its presence felt. La Niña also has a significant influence on tropical development in the Atlantic basin during hurricane season.

When a La Niña phase occurs, less wind shear is found in the regions of the Atlantic basin where tropical weather develops, increasing the potential for a higher-than-normal amount of tropical systems.

La Niña was in place for both the prolific 2005 and 2020 Atlantic hurricane seasons. The 2005 season featured the devastating Hurricane Katrina and was also the first time the predetermined list of designated storm names had been exhausted. Forecasters had to turn to Greek letters to name storms for the first time in history. The second and final time forecasters would tap into the Greek alphabet was the record-breaking 2020 hurricane season. That year featured an unprecedented 11 direct strikes from tropical cyclones on U.S. soil, including the now-infamous Hurricane Laura.

Both La Niña and El Niño tend to reach peak intensity from fall, which is a key time for hurricane season impacts, through winter.

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