Chris Dolce
Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletter to get weekday updates from The Weather Channel and our meteorologists.
Strong El Niño conditions are still favored for this winter, which could impact the weather conditions we see in the coming months, according to a just-released monthly update from NOAA.
Here are the main takeaways from the October update:
1. Forecasters from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center still favor a strong El Niño late this fall into winter, or a 75-85% chance from November through January. That means the seasonal average of sea-surface temperatures in a certain region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean would be at or above the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than average.
2. NOAA says there is an 80% chance El Niño will last through spring (March-May).
3. There is 3-in-10 chance this event could warm even further and become historically strong, or a so-called super El Niño, which means sea-surface temperatures would cross the 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than average threshold. There have been three super El Niño winters since 1950 in 2015-16, 1997-98 and 1982-83.
Here's what El Niño is and why it matters: An El Niño is a periodic warming of a strip of water straddling the equator in the Pacific Ocean, as shown in the general area highlighted in the map below. El Niño events occur about every two to seven years.
NOAA declares an El Niño has developed when sea-surface temperatures in a certain region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean have reached at least 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) above average for at least a month and are accompanied by changes in the atmosphere. That threshold for the current event was first reached in June.
El Niño can affect weather patterns thousands of miles away in the United States and around the world. Since most El Niños peak in late fall or winter, they can have their strongest influence in the colder months of the year.
Sea-surface temperatures compared to average in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.Here's how El Niño typically affects winter weather in the U.S.: In general, the classic strong El Niño winter tends to be wetter than average through much of the southern U.S., from parts of California to the Carolinas, due in part to a stronger, more southern jet stream track.
Across much of the northern U.S., a stronger El Niño tends to produce a warmer winter.
We found that some cities in the Southwest, Southern Plains and mid-Atlantic have their snowiest winters during El Niño.
(MORE: What El Niño Could Mean For Snow This Winter)
Typical impacts during an El Niño from December through February in North America.However, El Niño is the not the only driver that can affect winter weather: First, not all El Niños are exactly the same. Even a stronger El Niño doesn't necessarily guarantee strong impacts on the weather pattern like shown in the map above.
Just as the price of gasoline doesn't control the entire economy, El Niño isn't the only factor influencing winter weather.
Two of the wild cards meteorologists watch for that can override El Niño's influence for a part of winter are the polar vortex and Greenland blocking. But it's difficult to forecast months ahead of time what, if any, influence those factors could have on winter.
Our official weather.com winter outlook will be released Saturday, so check back this weekend for what to expect.
Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
No comments:
Post a Comment