Tropical Storm Pilar could flare up as it swipes Central America, and AccuWeather forecasters say a new system taking shape in the Caribbean could threaten the storm-weary region.
Published Oct 30, 2023 1:51 PM EDT | Updated Oct 31, 2023 8:00 AM EDT
AccuWeather meteorologists have their eye on a couple of tropical systems from the eastern Pacific to the western Atlantic basins this week, and both of these systems may be a threat to Central America.
Tropical activity has trended much closer to the coasts of Central and North America in recent weeks as dry air and wind shear over the central Atlantic have become more hostile for development. Wind shear is the sudden change in speed or direction of breezes in the region that are not associated with a tropical system. Strong wind shear can prevent tropical development or cause a potent tropical system to weaken. An increase in wind shear is common during the latter part of October and into November.
This image of the eastern Pacific and southwestern Atlantic was captured on Tuesday, Oct. 31, 2023. Left of center just off the coast of Central America is Tropical Storm Pilar. Another area being watched for tropical development is farther to the right in the eastern Caribbean. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
Meanwhile, a plume of warm water in the Tropical Pacific associated with El Niño has fueled multiple powerful hurricanes in the eastern Pacific. In the wake of Category 5 Hurricane Otis, and earlier Category 4 Hurricanes Norma and Lidia, AccuWeather meteorologists have been closely monitoring a new system in the region.
Pilar to spin toward Central America, then boomerang away
Even though the latest tropical system to bloom in the eastern Pacific had some trouble organizing initially, Pilar became a tropical storm over the weekend and is tracking closer to Central America during the first part of this week.
Tropical Storm Pilar is moving northeastward and closer to Guatemala and El Salvador, and is close to making its boomerang turn. There is a chance for Pilar to strengthen into a hurricane in the short term due to water temperatures in the lower to middle 80s Fahrenheit and a lack of disruptive wind shear. However, water temperatures are not quite as warm as the setup that contributed to explosive development with Lidia, Norma and Otis earlier this month.
"The storm will approach El Salvador on Tuesday before a flip in steering winds occur and trigger a 180-degree turn to the southwest, which will take the system away from land on Wednesday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer said.
Heavy rain will move onshore through Tuesday and can trigger flash flooding and mudslides along the southwestern coastline of Guatemala, El Salvador and through the western coast of Nicaragua. The heavy rain and flash flood risk will extend into the mountains of southern Honduras. Because of these anticipated conditions, AccuWeather meteorologists have rated Pilar as a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes, which is a six-point scale ranging from “less than one” and 1 to 5.
The greatest risk to lives and property in the region will likely stem from the consequences of heavy rainfall.
Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches (25-50 mm) are expected for the southern coast of Guatemala through the western coast of Nicaragua and into far northwestern Costa Rica. While this sort of rainfall over a day or two is not likely to cause problems, heavier rain in a few hour's time could trigger flash flooding and mudslides.
Rainfall of 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) is expected over the central Nicaragua coast through El Salvador. The heaviest rainfall of 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 16 inches (400 mm) is likely along the El Salvador coast through the northern coastline of Nicaragua.
Winds in these same areas may lead to tree and property damage, as well as power outages through Tuesday night.
Pilar will bring maximum sustained winds of tropical storm force (39-73 miles per hour, 63-117 kilometers per hour) along the immediate coastline of El Salvador as it makes its closest approach to land Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Within the strongest wind gusts in El Salvador, an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 60 mph (95 km/h) is expected. However, should Pilar rapidly strengthen as it travels closer to the coast of Central America, sustained winds and peak gusts could be higher.
"Once the storm turns to the southwest on Wednesday, it will also begin to lose wind intensity as it tracks into the open eastern Pacific Ocean," Wimer said. As Pilar moves away, rain and wind will subside in Central America.
System bears watching in the Caribbean
AccuWeather meteorologists are watching another system in the eastern Caribbean for tropical development this week.
A budding zone of showers and thunderstorms, which may stay in a zone with much lower wind shear as it travels westward over the Caribbean this week.
"This feature has a high chance of evolving into a tropical depression or storm as it drifts westward this week," Douty said, adding, "It could bring impacts to Guatemala and Nicaragua in the form of heavy rain and gusty winds by the weekend."
Any additional rain in Central America that overlaps that of Pilar from the first part of this week could add to the risk of flash flooding and mudslides.
There is also the potential for some of that moisture to linger in the western Caribbean, where it may be drawn north into the southeastern Gulf and perhaps the Florida Straits early next week, AccuWeather Meteorologist Joseph Bauer said. This could enhance showers and gusty thunderstorms in Florida, should that occur.
AccuWeather will continue to provide updates on the tropical threats in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific. Both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane seasons do not officially end until Nov. 30.
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