Lightning from thunderstorms that will produce little in the way of rainfall will threaten to ignite rapidly spreading wildfires, especially in the mountains of California from Wednesday through Friday.
By Bill Deger, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Aug 7, 2023 1:45 PM EDT | Updated Aug 8, 2023 5:49 AM EDT
A rash of thunderstorms expected to form and roam the southwestern United States later this week will bring lightning that could spark new wildfires, AccuWeather forecasters warn.
The storms that develop, especially in the mountains of Central and Southern California from late Wednesday through Friday, will feature lightning but very little rainfall and are known as dry thunderstorms. This is a dangerous recipe as the region barrels into the annual wildfire season.
The threat of these dry thunderstorms will expand into parts of the Northwest by the weekend.
The impetus for thunderstorms in the Southwest later this week will be leftover energy from Post Tropical Cyclone Eugene, which has lost wind intensity and is currently wandering the eastern Pacific. Its remaining area of low pressure will move ashore in California by late Wednesday and Thursday, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
Accompanying the low pressure system will be some moisture, which will increase the humidity across much of California and help to trigger storms.
"Moisture in the upper atmosphere can help to develop thunderstorms across the mountains of Southern California and the Sierra Nevada," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty. "The lack of moisture near ground level can lead to little rainfall with many of the storms."
These storms will also impact parts of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah. They will tend to ignite over higher elevations and with the heating of the day before diminishing at night.
The combination of little rainfall and lightning could lead to the ignition of new wildfires as the region heads into the thick of wildfire season, which typically runs from July to October.
Flames rise from the York Fire on Ivanpah Rd. on Sunday, July 30, 2023, in the Mojave National Preserve, Calif. Crews battled “fire whirls” in California’s Mojave National Preserve this weekend as a massive wildfire crossed into Nevada amid dangerously high temperatures and raging winds. (AP Photo/Ty O'Neil)
According to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, there were 9 active wildfires across California as of Monday morning. The Bonny Fire is the largest blaze that started July 27th, 2023 and has already scorched over 2,300 acres in Riverside County to the southwest of Los Angeles.
Despite nearly a dozen active fires, this is below the historical average for August, at least compared to recent seasons. This is largely due to the record amounts of rain and snow the state recorded late last year and earlier this year. However, AccuWeather experts warn that current conditions are ripe for the development of new fires.
"We are just now getting into the thick of the dry season in California," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Joe Bauer. "The longstanding blanket of snow that has remained since last winter has vanished at many reporting stations in the Sierra."
With the loss of the snowpack at all but the highest elevations, there will be plenty of dry vegetation, or fuels that can be ignited by lightning in the mountains and nearby foothills, added Bauer.
"Gusty winds associated with thunderstorms can also lead to rapid fire growth," warned Douty.
California and the Southwest will not be the only region at risk for dry storms, which can lead to new wildfires. AccuWeather forecasters warn that by this weekend, the energy and moisture associated with the threat late in the workweek will expand into more of the Northwest.
On Saturday and Sunday, thunderstorms with very little rain will also erupt in parts of the northern Sierra Nevada range in Northern California, and also over mountains as far north and east as southern Oregon, Idaho and Wyoming.
High pressure returning to the West next week will largely end the threat of thunderstorms for an extended period of time beginning Monday.
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