January's Tornado Outbreak Threat Is Typically Highest In The South

 Chris Dolce

Published: December 30, 2022

January's reputation for bone-chilling cold usually doesn't make you think of damaging tornadoes, but they happen most years, and sometimes there can be large outbreaks.

The South sees the most January tornadoes

The South is the region most likely to experience tornadoes in January, but occasionally, tornadoes can spin up farther north.

It's also the same general area that is typically most prone to tornadoes in other colder months from fall into early spring.

(​MORE: Tornadoes Aren't Just For Spring And Summer)

The red area is where there is at least a 0.1% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point in January. Based on 1982-2011 averages.

Proximity to Gulf moisture is why the region is most favored

A near-perfect marriage between warmer, more humid air and potent atmospheric triggers, like a low-pressure system and strong jet stream, must exist for tornado-producing thunderstorms to form in winter.

Because the South is closest to the milder, more humid air of the Gulf of Mexico, it's the most favored location for these ingredients to overlap in January.

The biggest question when forecasting severe weather this time of year: Will sufficiently humid air move far enough north to destabilize the atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to form?

Tornado activity in January is highly variable from year to year

Over the last 20 years, an average of 36 tornadoes have occurred in the U.S. in January. That's the fewest of any month but is roughly the same as December and February.

A January record of 212 tornadoes hit the U.S. in 1999. There have also been years without a single January tornado, most recently in 2003.

January's recent and past tornado history

Tornado activity last January was right around average, with just over three dozen twisters confirmed.

January 2017 is the most recent very active year with 137 tornadoes. The largest outbreak that month was Jan. 20-22, when 79 tornadoes were spawned in the South. Twenty people were killed in Georgia and Mississippi.

A vehicle sits in a debris field in the aftermath of a tornado in Adel, Georgia, in January 2017.

J​anuary 2020 was also active with 87 confirmed tornadoes, including three that killed a combined seven people in Alabama, Louisiana and Texas.

January's largest single outbreak happened over the course of two days when 129 tornadoes were spawned, mostly in the South, in the record year of 1999.

The deadliest January tornadoes on record both killed 55 people. One happened on Jan. 3, 1949, in Warren, Arkansas, and the other on Jan. 11, 1898, in Fort Smith, Arkansas.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.