Published: December 30, 2022
January's temperature outlook east of the Rockies will make the historic pre-Christmas cold outbreak feel like a distant memory, according to an update released Friday by The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2.
Outlook is now much warmer in the East
The most noticeable change in the outlook for the new month is that above-average temperatures are now expected in a broad area from the Midwest into the Northeast and South.
Locations from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes and Northeast could see temperatures that are warmest when compared to a typical January.
(MORE: Coldest Time Of Year Is Late January For Many)
The West won't stray far from January's norm
Temperatures in the entire western region should stay near average for the month as a whole.
That's being driven by a stormy weather pattern, which will bring cloud cover and bouts of rain and snow to the region. This usually helps to eliminate any wild temperature extremes.
The East could see another cold snap later in the month
While a warm pattern is guaranteed to kick off the new year, cold lovers in the East might get their wish for a pattern change in the final 10 or so days of January because of multiple factors.
"There is a lot of statistical/historical evidence, if not supported by current dynamical model forecasts, that we will see another cold spell in the back half," said Dr. Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2.
This doesn't guarantee another major cold outbreak like we saw in late December. Instead, the odds are tilted toward temperatures being more typical for this time of year later in the month.
The Pacific weather pattern is driving the mild forecast
You can blame a weather pattern over the Pacific Ocean if you were hoping for a colder January forecast in the East.
"The warmth is driven by a significant shift in the North Pacific pattern, toward strong Aleutian low pressure that will flood the U.S. with mild air," said Crawford.
Air masses that originate from maritime areas like the Pacific are not a source of bitterly cold air in the Lower 48. Instead, arctic cold outbreaks get their start over land areas like Siberia, Alaska or western Canada before descending southward through a plunging jet stream east of the Rockies.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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