By AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Jul. 31, 2022 7:36 AM EDT | Updated Jul. 31, 2022 6:58 PM EDT
Residents across much of the Midwest and Great Lakes have enjoyed calm and seasonable weather in recent days, with little in the way of extreme heat or widespread rainfall. But AccuWeather forecasters say a change of pace will be quick to arrive in much of the region, with thunderstorms and even some severe weather to start the week.
As always, it will take certain ingredients lining up at the right time to produce severe thunderstorms. In this case, the stage will be set for multiple days of disruptive thunderstorms.
Hail, damaging wind gusts and flash flooding in flood-prone areas will be the most noteworthy threats, however, a brief tornado or two is also possible.
On Sunday afternoon, storms began to fire across western Minnesota and far eastern South Dakota, and into portions of Nebraska.
Toward the evening hours, as storms become most intense and widespread, they are expected to push through much of central Minnesota, including Minneapolis. St. Cloud, Minnesota, located roughly 60 miles northwest of the Twin Cities, may have some of the day's worst storms. Intense storms are a possibility along Minnesota's Interstate-35 corridor and into parts of Wisconsin, though just how strong they'll get will largely depend on timing.
"Storms will tend to lose intensity later in the evening. If the Minneapolis area sees these thunderstorms early in the evening, they'll be more likely to reach severe limits," Pydynowski said.
As the storm system progresses eastward to start the traditional workweek, the severe threat will move along with it. Stretching from northeastern Missouri to Ohio, and northward to southern Ontario, a broad area may be threatened by strong and heavy storms. Similar to the previous day, hail and wind will be the primary threats.
While the most intense storms may be a bit more isolated than on Sunday, they could potentially cause greater impacts given their broad range, especially when it comes to travel. With many busy interstates passing through the threat area, travelers may need to allow extra time to reach their destinations.
After storms develop during the afternoon once again, the evening commutes in cities such as Indianapolis, Detroit, and Columbus, Ohio, may be impacted. Chicago is likely to remain north of any severe weather, though a morning shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the city. In the southeastern reaches of the metro area, a stronger storm cannot be ruled out.
Well after dark, storms will continue to press southeastward. Cities such as Lexington, Kentucky, as well as Cincinnati and Cleveland, Ohio, may have some gusty late-night thunderstorms Monday.
The threat of another round of severe weather will return to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday as temperatures tick up across the center of the country.
Residents in cities such as Duluth, Minnesota, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls will once again be dodging storms on Tuesday. With hail and damaging winds expected again, a few tornadoes also cannot be ruled out.
"With a potent jet stream associated with this new storm system, there may be enough wind shear for a tornado threat to develop," Pydnowski explained.
The threat of storms will then press eastward on Wednesday.
AccuWeather meteorologists have highlighted a broad area, stretching from Iowa to southern Ontario, where a vigorous severe weather threat could take shape. While the exact area of the most intense storms remains less clear, the threat of severe thunderstorms is unlikely to wane in the near future.
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