By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Jun. 29, 2022 12:11 PM EDT | Updated Jun. 29, 2022 9:11 PM EDT
A large mass of showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico that AccuWeather meteorologists have dubbed a tropical rainstorm will spin onshore in Texas before the end of this week. While there is still time for the system to become a tropical depression prior to making landfall, the main impacts from the system will be flooding downpours and drought-easing rainfall as the storm moves inland, forecasters say.
The system has the potential to evolve into a tropical depression before making landfall on Thursday, but it is running out of time for development.
"The system had a broad, elongated circulation but a poorly-defined center based on satellite information on Wednesday, despite it showing signs of organization from Monday to Tuesday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
Clusters of thunderstorms continued to erupt over the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, June 29, 2022. Forecasters said the circulation of the tropical rainstorm remained broad and weak. (AccuWeather/Enhanced RealVue™ satellite)
Dry air was limiting the system's ability to organize and strengthen on Wednesday, and that may continue through the time it moves inland over Texas by late Thursday when the chance of development will drop off, according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
The National Hurricane Center stated similarly in its Wednesday evening outlook for the storm, stating that shower and thunderstorm activity "is too poorly organized" to designate the system as a tropical depression. Formation of such a depression is at a 40 percent chance over the next five days.
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the storm will remain isolated but generally limited to the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts into Wednesday evening. However, as the system pivots northwestward, showers and thunderstorms will increase in frequency over much of eastern Texas and spread northward over western Louisiana and into southern Arkansas through the end of the week. In this zone, a general 1-2 inches of rain is in store, forecasters say.
The heaviest rainfall will occur from near Houston to just east of Corpus Christi, northward to College Station, Texas, from Thursday to Friday where a general 4-8 inches is likely. There is the potential for an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 16 inches to be realized.
Much of Texas is suffering from moderate to exceptional drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor. Some of the rain from the storm will fall on drought areas in the eastern part of the state as well as abnormally dry to drought areas of Louisiana. Crops have been suffering from the drought with many farmers facing a significant reduction in yields for this year, according to AccuWeather Reporter Bill Wadell.
Since March 1, Corpus Christi has only received about one-third of its normal rainfall of 11 inches. Rain has been even more scarce this month with a mere 0.27 of an inch falling, compared to a normal of 3.31 inches from June 1 to June 28. It has been a similar story in Houston and College Station with rainfall amounts of 6% and 5% of normal, respectively, over the same timeframe.
However, storms of this nature largely contain towering clouds and thunderstorms, which are capable of producing torrential downpours. Rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour can occur. At this rate, even the most porous soil can be subject to flash flooding. There is a high risk of flooding downpours, especially in urban areas, from the central Texas coast through northeastern Texas and western Louisiana from Thursday into Friday evening.
Meteorologists say motorists should anticipate travel delays as some roads could be blocked by rushing water and/or ponding, including in the Houston area. Departing or arriving flights at airports across the region could also be delayed or canceled due to the tropical weather.
Most of the downpours and thunderstorms associated with the tropical rainstorm are likely to remain to the east of San Antonio and the Dallas metro area.
Some of the more intense thunderstorms near the Texas coast will bring the risk of strong wind gusts, hail and an isolated tornado or waterspout.
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Should the system quickly organize and strengthen at the last minute, prior to making landfall along the central Texas coast on Thursday, building surf could lead to incidents of beach erosion and minor coastal flooding, near and north of where the center moves over land. Due to the development risk and other factors, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale is less than one for Texas with this system.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical rainstorm will join a broad area of moisture over the southern United States that will persist through much of the Independence Day weekend. While a total washout is not predicted, storms in the region could produce isolated flash flooding and strong wind gusts. People should move indoors at the first rumble of thunder and never attempt to drive through flooded roads, experts advise.
Elsewhere in the tropics, AccuWeather meteorologists expect a system over the southern Caribbean to become a strong tropical storm prior to slamming into Central America this weekend. The next tropical storm to form in the Atlantic basin will be named Bonnie.
Another disturbance hundreds of miles to the east of the system in the Caribbean is also being monitored by forecasters. Additional tropical development of that system could occur in early July.
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