By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Apr. 9, 2022 10:11 AM EDT | Updated Apr. 10, 2022 6:42 AM EDT
As a powerful storm emerges from the West and takes an agonizingly slow track across the Great Plains next week, severe thunderstorms will erupt for multiple days over the central United States, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. From Monday through Thursday, at least 18 states could be affected by the outbreak.
Some locations in the southern U.S. may be hit by severe weather for the fourth consecutive week, but the setup may also pose the most significant risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the North Central states of the year so far, perhaps eclipsing the outbreak from March 25.
All facets of violent weather are possible next week with the likelihood of a significant outbreak. Many of the storms will bring strong, gusty winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning strikes. However, the most powerful storms will carry the potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.
Despite the slow movement of the main storm, some eastward progression is inevitable during the course of next week. However, the forward speed of the thunderstorms may be unsteady at times, forecasters say.
Timing the advancing severe weather will be tricky as there will be multiple disturbances that pivot around the main storm system, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda. These disturbances could cause storms to steadily advance one day, slow down another, and then fire up again farther to the west.
The first storms are likely to erupt later Sunday afternoon and continue into Sunday night from central Oklahoma to southeastern Kansas and central Missouri as a lead disturbance ahead of the main storm system pivots across the Plains. Storms in this zone may produce localized flooding and strong wind gusts at the tail end of the weekend.
However, the start of the main event is likely to unfold on Monday and impact areas from central Texas to Arkansas and southern Missouri.
The storms on Monday afternoon and evening will likely fire just east of a boundary separating dry air over the High Plains to the west and surging warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico to the east. A few storms in this zone could bring all modes of severe weather, including isolated tornadoes.
On Tuesday, the scope and intensity of severe weather are likely to increase, but the storms will remain centered over roughly the same zone as Monday, AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologist Isaac Bowers said, adding that Tuesday's threat zone may extend as far south as the upper Texas coast, as far to the east as central Louisiana and as far to the north as northern Iowa.
Once again all modes of severe weather will be possible during Tuesday afternoon and evening. Forecasters will be paying particularly close attention to flash flooding, especially where storms overlap areas hit on Sunday or Monday. Meteorologists will also be closely monitoring the potential for powerful wind gusts and tornadoes.
The scope and intensity of severe weather are likely to peak from Wednesday to Thursday.
The threat of severe weather may extend from much of the central Gulf Coast to nearly 1,000 miles to the north over portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes regions. At various points during the outbreak, severe thunderstorms may extend from Houston to Chicago or Minneapolis one day to New Orleans to Detroit the next.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Since Dec. 31, 2021, there have only been two days where severe weather occurred in the Chicago area, according to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. Both incidents occurred last month on March 4 and March 25 and involved strong wind gusts. Localized wind damage reports on March 4 were not attributed to thunderstorms. However, a significant outbreak of severe weather occurred on March 25 in the Midwest and was responsible for at least 40 reports of tornadoes from Iowa and southern Wisconsin to western Ohio.
Everything from tornadoes to high winds, hail and flash flooding will be possible. Because the incoming storm system is expected to become so dynamic, it may be possible to drive from the zone at risk for severe weather to areas at risk of heavy snow and blizzard conditions over parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Plains in just a matter of hours.
"There is a high risk of widespread severe thunderstorms from northeastern Texas and northern Louisiana to southern Missouri on Wednesday," Bowers said. Locally severe thunderstorms could extend as far north as Minnesota and Wisconsin.
On Thursday, thunderstorms are likely to shift a bit farther along to the east and may reach portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the north. In the South, the storm may reach parts of the Tennessee Valley and the southeastern U.S. down to the Florida Gulf Coast.
While many of the thunderstorms during the outbreak will erupt as a result of the warmth of the day and gradually weaken during the evening as the air cools, some pockets of severe weather and tornado risk may continue well after dark.
"Thunderstorms may last well after dark on Tuesday from portions of Arkansas and Louisiana, and then from parts of Tennessee and Mississippi to Alabama during Wednesday night," Sojda said.
Severe thunderstorms that erupt and move through locations during the day pose a significant threat, but an extra level of danger will exist where storms linger after dark and persist through much of the night when most people are sleeping.
People are urged to review severe weather procedures and have the means to receive severe weather bulletins 24 hours a day, such as an app on a cell phone. In situations where there is a threat while sleeping, it may be best to leave the phone on all night with the volume set at an audible level, experts say.
More to read:
For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.
No comments:
Post a Comment