Hurricane Isaias is expected to track near and up the East Coast, but there remains a good deal of uncertainty regarding exactly how severe impacts will be beyond its path through the Bahamas.
Isaias is forecast to move close to Florida this weekend. Heavy rain, strong winds, coastal flooding and life-threatening rip currents are concerns in eastern Florida through Sunday.
(MORE: Hurricane Isaias Forecast)
Attention will then turn farther north. Isaias will take a turn toward the north-northeast, likely when it is near or off the Southeast coast early next week.
The timing of this turn is important for determining how close Isaias will move to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This turn will be influenced by an approaching cold front that will be pushing into the East early next week. How fast this front slides eastward, the strength of an upper-level trough and the intensity of Isaias, will all play key roles in determining its final path.
The exact track of Isaias will decide what, if any, impacts are experienced in areas north of Florida. It is also too soon to know if Isaias stays offshore or if it makes one or even multiple landfalls (potentially Florida, the Carolinas and/or the Northeast).
Projected PathHow fast Isaias moves northward is also unclear which would change when impacts would be felt in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Recent trends have suggested a slower forward movement, meaning tropical storm conditions would occur a little later.
Potential Impacts, Timing
If Isaias tracks along the eastern edge of the projected path shown above, then most impacts will be minimal. There would likely still be coastal concerns in the Carolinas, but the Northeast would generally only expect higher surf and dangerous rip currents.
A track farther west would increase concerns throughout the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The risk of heavy rain, strong winds, tornadoes, coastal flooding and erosion would be higher with a more westward path.
It is also important to point out the impacts often occur outside of the red shaded areas, so it is important not to focus on the center of the cone of uncertainty.
Monday-Tuesday
Isaias may be located near or off the Southeast coast around Monday depending on its forward speed.
Strong, gusty winds could reach into portions of the eastern Carolinas, along with heavy rain. There is also the potential for thunderstorms and an isolated tornado.
Coastal flooding, beach erosion and rip currents are also possible along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Impacts could also extend farther north into the Delmarva Peninsula early Tuesday.
Monday's ForecastTuesday-Wednesday
Rain and wind may spread northward into the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday.
Impacts will likely be greater toward the coast. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are possible in some areas.
Tuesday's ForecastRainfall
Rain and thunderstorms are expected separate from Isaias. One disturbance will bring the chance for showers and storms this weekend into early week and then the cold front mentioned previously will bring another round of rain and thunderstorms behind Isaias.
Isaias combined with the additional systems will bring moderate rainfall to much of the East. The track of Isaias will determine where heavier rain falls, and where flooding will be a greater concern.
Some rainfall is good news as just under 30% of the Northeast is in drought, with 70% of the region at least abnormally dry, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Heavier rainfall over a relatively short period of time could be too much of a good thing.
The exact details of the forecast will come into better focus in the coming days for this tropical system, so be sure to check back frequently for updates in the days ahead.
Rainfall OutlookThe Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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