By AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Aug. 31,2020 7:05AM
Following relatively quiet weather to end the weekend across much of the south-central United States, the region will have to gear up for multiple days of adverse weather to begin the week.
While many may have breathed a sigh of relief due to lack of severe weather on Sunday, that respite will be short-lived. Severe thunderstorms will take aim at portions of the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley through Monday night as a cold front edges into the area.
"A boundary between cooler, less humid air across the northern Plains will contrast strongly with the heat and humidity over the southern Plains through Monday night," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike Leseney said.
This boundary, also known as a cold front, will act as the focus for severe thunderstorm activity through Monday night. This front will stretch from the Texas Panhandle, through central Missouri, and all the way north into western Ontario, Canada.
Activity will ramp up through Monday night as some sunshine and subsequent daytime heating acts to destabilize the atmosphere ahead of the slowly approaching cold front in the afternoon.
Thunderstorms will likely fire up along a southwest to northeast line and impact a swath of the region from west-central Texas to northeastern Oklahoma, before trekking southeastward during the evening and overnight. By the overnight hours, the threat for severe storms will shift into an area from northern Texas to western Arkansas.
Oklahoma City; Little Rock, Arkansas; and Abilene, Texas, are just a few locations that can have feisty storms roll through their area by Monday night.
The strongest storms through Monday night will have the capacity to produce heavy rainfall, large hail and damaging wind gusts up to an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph.
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The front responsible for Monday's activity will slow to a halt and become stationary on Tuesday. This stationary front will allow heavy storm activity to continue for the south-central U.S. through Wednesday.
Rather than damaging wind gusts or large hail, the most widespread threat on Tuesday will take the form of flooding rainfall.
"Tuesday into Wednesday, we are concerned about very heavy rainfall and flooding," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike Doll said. "We expect additional thunderstorm clusters to develop and more than one could move over the same areas impacted on Monday."
The largest threat associated with heavy rainfall is flash flooding. On Tuesday, flash flooding will be most likely over portions of northern Texas, eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
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"Several inches of rain could fall in a relatively short period of time," Doll added. "If this happens, the ground will not be able to absorb it fast enough and storm drainage systems will become overwhelmed."
Ponding and even outright flooding can develop on roadways very quickly for locations caught under the heaviest downpours through Wednesday. Travelers, including those on portions of interstates 10, 20 and 40, should remain vigilant for rapidly changing conditions and never drive through flooded roadways.
Stormy conditions are expected to stay put into Tuesday night in the south-central portions of the United States with severe weather anticipated in western Texas. Areas from Amarillo to just northwest of San Antonio can expect feisty storms Tuesday into Tuesday night. The main impacts anticipated from this severe threat will be flash flooding and damaging wind gusts up to an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph.
The stationary front will likely remain draped over portions of the southern Plains and western Mississippi Valley through Wednesday. Meaning, unsettled weather and drenching thunderstorms will remain in place over these weather-weary areas into midweek.
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