Updated May. 31, 2020 1:19 PM
Forecasters are focused on Tropical Storm Amanda in the East Pacific, which is poised to unleash feet of rain across portions of Mexico and Central America into early week.
The first tropical system of the 2020 East Pacific hurricane season developed back in late April, when Tropical Depression One-E formed well west of Mexico. This depression remained over water and did not make any impact to land.
The next tropical system in the East Pacific will be a different story.
Approximately 400 km (250 miles) southwest of southern Guatemala, a tropical low formed early in the week near what meteorologists call a gyre, or a large area of disturbed weather. This disturbance became more organized over the past several days and was designated Tropical Depression Two-E on Saturday.
Early Sunday morning prior to landfall, the National Hurricane Center officially dubbed the low as Tropical Storm Amanda, with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour.
The magnitude of the tropical moisture already pushing through the region will bring rounds of heavy rain from the Panama-Costa Rica border to Guatemala into Monday morning.
Downpours will also spill northward through much of southern Mexico.
Any downpour is likely to be heavy and could produce 50 mm (2 inches) of rainfall in just a few hours. Areas that receive days of this much rain are likely to experience destructive, life-threatening flash flooding and, in the mountainous terrain, mudslides.
"Heavy rainfall will be the greatest threat over Central America, particularly in the higher terrain or Guatemala and El Salvador where rainfall totals of 18-24 inches are possible," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Randy Adkins said. The highest terrain could pick up an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 800 mm (30 inches).
This is more than enough rain, when combined with the rugged terrain, to lead to life-threatening conditions from flash flooding and mudslides.
"Tropical Storm Amanda is
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
After moving over land, the storm will quickly weaken over the rugged terrain, but heavy rainfall will remain a concern.
In anticipation of the approaching storm, the President of El Salvador issued a "Yellow Alert" around the middle of this past week.
"A landfall anywhere from Costa Rica to Guatamala is quite rare," AccuWeather's Lead Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor waters on either side of Central America in relation to the lingering and still developing gyre.
"There is some potential for a system to develop during the first or second week of June on the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico side of Central America and the northern and eastern side of the gyre," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
While tropical systems often track near Central America, or even make landfall along the coast with the Caribbean Sea, a landfalling Pacific system is much less common, only occurring twice in the last 10 years.
This satellite image shows Tropical Storm Amanda nearing the Central America coastline early Sunday morning, May 31, 2020. (CIRA/RAMMB)
The last tropical system to do this was Tropical Storm Selma, which formed late in October 2017. Selma was the first ever tropical storm to make landfall in El Salvador.
Tropical Storm Alma formed off the coast of Costa Rica in late May 2008 and drifted northward to make landfall in Nicaragua. It was the first tropical storm ever to do so on the Pacific coast of Nicaragua.
Two other notable storms have made landfall in Central America since the turn of the century. Adrian made landfall in Honduras as a tropical storm in 2005, while Tropical Storm Agatha made landfall in Guatemala in 2010.
RELATED:
The same gyre that generated Tropical Storm Amanda could be powerful enough produce additional tropical activity in the coming weeks.
"A tropical gyre is just a large slowly spinning area of disturbed weather, that can be as wide as a 1,500 km (1,000 miles) in diameter. When they form over Central America, they can create extra moisture to spawn tropical development on the Atlantic side or the Pacific side or sometimes both," Sosnowski said.
Because of this, AccuWeather meteorologists will also be monitoring the waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean very closely for tropical development through the middle of June.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
No comments:
Post a Comment