New depression forms in Arabian Sea

By Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Jun. 1, 2020 2:54 AM

After Cyclone Amphan made headlines last week for its impacts on northeastern India and Bangladesh, the focus has switched to the body of water on the western side of India.

The more pressing area AccuWeather forecasters are focused on is located over the Arabian Peninsula. Meteorologists began monitoring an area of low pressure just north of Socotra, Yemen, for tropical development late last week.

Located over the warm waters of the western Arabian Sea and in an area of light wind shear, the low developed into a depression late in the day on Friday as it approached the coast of the peninsula.

The depression weakened to a low pressure area as it moved over Oman and into Yemen at the beginning of the week.

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Despite weakening, this low will threaten to produce periods of heavy rainfall in parts of Oman and Yemen into Monday night.

Even though this system could trigger gusty winds and stir up rough seas, flooding downpours will be the main threat across the region.

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"The heaviest rain will fall along the Dhofar coast of Oman and Al Mahrah coast of Yemen with rainfall of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches)," said AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 380 mm (15 inches) is possible in this area including Salalah, Oman. This amount of rain would be about two years' worth of rain for the city in just a few days.

Salalah typically receives about 131 mm (5.16 inches) of rainfall in a year.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches (25-75 mm) are possible from Dhofar Governorate of Oman into the Governorates of Al Mahrah and Hadramaut of Yemen, he added.

According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk, downpours can lead to a rapid rise in water, especially where water rushes down hillsides from the higher elevations.

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Into the beginning of the week, the system is forecast to track along coastal areas of Yemen where it will continue to produce areas of showers and thunderstorms.

Widespread heavy rain is not expected during the early half of the week, but any localized downpours can lead to flooding issues.

This will not be the last tropical threat for the Arabian Sea as another tropical system has begun to organize.

An area of low pressure over the Arabian Sea has strengthened to a depression on Monday morning, local time.

"Light shear and warm water should allow the depression to strengthen further this week," added Nicholls.

According to Nicholls, the exact track through the end of the week is unclear at this time, so areas from Gujarat and coastal Pakistan to Oman will need to monitor for possible impacts late in the week or next weekend.

In anticipation of heavy rain, gusty winds and rough seas from the potential tropical system, officials have suggested that fishing operations should be suspended into the middle of the week.

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