Updated Oct. 29, 2019 4:21 PM
While Kyarr is gradually weakening over the western Arabian Sea, the focus will shift to potential tropical development near southwestern India as Diwali celebrations wind down.
Kyarr strengthened into a super cyclonic storm this past weekend as it lashed the western India coast with fierce winds and drenching rain. The storm has since tracked across the Arabian Sea and is starting to weaken.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) downgraded Kyarr to an extremely severe cyclonic storm on Tuesday, but wind speeds around 200 km/h (125 mph) will keep the cyclone equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean.
The storm is forecast to continue to weaken as it starts to turn to the southwest and track along the coast of Oman into the latter half of the week. Outer bands of the storm can bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to coastal areas of eastern Oman late Wednesday and into Thursday.
Despite gradually weakening, the storm can cause rough surf and some coastal flooding along the eastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula into at least Friday.
Kyarr will not be the last tropical concern for the Arabian Sea.
A tropical disturbance just south of India has the potential to become more organized as it moves into the Arabian Sea in the coming days.
A well-marked area of low pressure is expected to concentrate into a depression in the next 12 to 24 hours, according to the IMD.
"If this system becomes named it will be the first time there were back-to-back cyclones in the Arabian Sea since Chapala and Megh in 2015," AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls observed.
"This would also be only the second time in history that this had occurred," he added.
Regardless of development, this feature is already bringing locally heavy downpours to Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala as well as Sri Lanka.
As this storm moves to the northwest in the coming days it will move into an area of weak wind shear, an environment more conducive for tropical development.
Similar to Kyarr, this storm is not expected to make landfall in western India but follow a path largely parallel to the coast. Depending on how close the storm tracks and how much it is able to strengthen, it can bring periods of heavy rain and gusty winds to the coast.
Much of this area received heavy rain from Kyarr, so any period additional heavy rain from this next system can increase the risk of flooding.
Rough surf and coastal flooding concerns will return to the west India coast through the end of the week.
The storm is forecast to continue tracking just off the coast through the end of the week with some potential for more strengthening.
By the end of the week and into the beginning of the weekend, the storm may turn to the west and track across the Arabian Sea, still following in the footsteps of Kyarr.
AccuWeather meteorologists say there is some uncertainty regarding the future of this system's path this weekend as it may gradually weaken over the Arabian sea.
However, there is some potential for the system to remain organized and track toward the Arabian Peninsula into the beginning of next week.
Once again the residents of Oman and Yemen should monitor this system as it could bring rain and gusty winds to the area.
Elsewhere in central and southern India, spotty showers and thunderstorms will develop each day as we approach the end of Diwali celebrations.
While it will not rain the entire day, residents should be prepared for a brief downpour on any given day.
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