Updated Oct. 30, 2019 11:39 AM
AccuWeather's annual summer forecast is out. As 2019 comes to a close, AccuWeather's long-range forecast team predicts that beneficial rain will bring some relief to areas of South America where drought has taken hold.
However, from Brazil and into parts of Argentina, unusually dry weather will cause concerns for some farmers. And how will weather this season play a role in the most active fire season in the Amazon since 2012?
Beneficial rains to help ease drought in Peru, Colombia, Venezuela
Colombia and Venezuela have been battling a long-term drought following several seasons with inadequate rain, but the summer will finally bring some relief.
“Some much-needed rain will return to Ecuador, much of Colombia and parts of western Venezuela into the Amazon Basin,” Jason Nicholls, AccuWeather's top international forecaster, said.
This will help to fill water reservoirs that are dangerously low, especially in Venezuela, where most of the power supply comes from hydroelectricity.
Rain across this region will also help to extinguish fires that continue to burn in the Amazon after the most active fire season since 2012, according to Global Fire Emissions Database.
In this Sept. 3, 2019, file photo, Brazilian soldier puts out fires at the Nova Fronteira region in Novo Progresso, Brazil. The fires that swept parts of the Amazon this year added to global worries about a warming climate, as well as the sense of urgency at the Climate Action Summit at the United Nations. (AP Photo/Leo Correa, File )
Unfortunately, the rainy spells this summer will not extend across all the regions suffering from drought.
“Dryness will lead to developing or worsening drought conditions from far eastern Venezuela to Suriname and French Guiana into the Brazilian state of Para,” Nicholls said.
The dry conditions will be accompanied by above-normal temperatures, causing the drought in this to area to worsen heading into 2020.
Rain to frequent southern Brazil, northern Argentina
Farmers in Brazil may face some issues, especially early in the season, as the summer features unusually dry conditions across the country's northeast, southeast and central-west.
“Spells of dry weather can continue to slow soybean planting and establishment across portions of Brazil from northern Minas Gerais and Bahia to northern Mato Grosso in December,” Nicholls said.
He added that some rain during January and February may ease dryness, but the season as a whole is expected to finish below average in terms of rainfall.
A lack of rain may also lead to drought in parts of western Paraguay, Bolivia and northwestern Argentina.
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Meanwhile, some of the heaviest and most frequent rainy spells will dampen the south of Brazil.
“More frequent and consistent rains with near- to slightly above-normal temperatures are expected across Santa Catarina and Rio Grande Do Sul in Brazil into eastern Paraguay into the Argentine croplands of Entre Rios, Santa Fe, Formosa, northern Buenos Aires and Cordoba,” Nicholls said.
This includes Porto Alegre, Brazil; Asuncion, Paraguay; Montevideo, Uruguay; and Cordoba and Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Summer heat to stretch over Chile and central Argentina
With rain forecast to frequent southern Brazil and into northeastern Argentina, areas to the south will bake under sweltering summer heat.
“Heat waves will be a frequent concern across these areas due to limited soil moisture and the prevailing pattern of the season,” Nicholls said.
Some of the highest temperatures may be recorded in central Chile, including areas near the capital of Santiago.
“Continuing dryness coupled with spells of heat will lead to developing or worsening drought conditions,” Nicholls added.
Farther south, summer will kick off with rounds of storms across much of Patagonia.
“Frequent storms are expected across far southern portions of Chile and Argentina, especially early in the season,” Nicholls said.
“The stormy pattern will ease and there can be some warmth around mid-season, [but] there is the chance for a wetter pattern to return later in February.”
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