Friday, September 6, 2019

In the wake of Dorian, where could the next tropical system form in the Atlantic?

By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist





As Dorian pulls away from the United States and Canada late this weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists are looking ahead to what else could be budding across the Atlantic in the coming days.
AccuWeather meteorologists have been monitoring a tropical wave that pushed off the western shores of Africa earlier in the week. As of Friday afternoon, it was located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
"The wave is a large, well-defined area of convection on satellite and has the look of a classic Cabo Verde storm," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
While the system is currently fighting some dry air and dust, it will move into an area where dust is not as prevalent into next week.
With wind shear not looking to be an issue and dry air dissipating as the system moves west, the environment would promote strengthening through the weekend. The wave looks to become more and more organized into next week.
CaboLowFri
This tropical wave could turn into a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane by the middle or end of next week, as it moves through the warm waters of the Atlantic.
Should this system strengthen into a tropical storm and become the next named system in the Atlantic basin, it would gain the name Humberto.
Latest modeling indicates that there are several possibilities for the exact track of this wave and its tropical moisture over the coming week. There are some indications that the wave could plow westward and eventually impact the Lesser Antilles.
"If the wave were to impact the Lesser Antilles, it would not be until at least the latter half of next week," Kottlowski said.
Another option would be that the wave could be steered to the north and away from land.
Atlantic basin Sept. 6
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This tropical wave is not alone out in the Atlantic Ocean.
Gabrielle, which has been churning in the Atlantic for much of the week, re-developed as a tropical storm late Friday morning, eastern time.
"Gabrielle will move into a favorable environment this weekend, giving the storm the opportunity to strengthen into a hurricane," added Kottlowski.
GabrielleArrow
Luckily for Bermuda, the Caribbean and the United States, the strengthening storm will be steered away and will not pose a threat to North America.
Into next week, Gabrielle will drift northward into cooler waters, allowing it to lose most of its tropical characteristics. However, the system will pass north of the British Isles, delivering a burst of gusty winds to the United Kingdom later next week.
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