Thursday, September 5, 2019

Dorian eyes Carolina coast with landfall forecast on the capes

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist




As Dorian grows in size, unleashing a broader area of strong winds and heavy rain, the eye of the hurricane is forecast to make landfall along the coast of the Carolinas, while making a northeastward turn into Friday.
On Wednesday morning, Dorian regained Category 3 major hurricane status with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph. However, by Thursday afternoon, the storm had weakened again and was a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph and a movement to the northeast at 10 mph.
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"Even though Dorian is weaker than it was when it devastated the northern Bahamas on Monday, the tropical-storm-force wind field has expanded outward to nearly 200 miles and the hurricane-force wind field is now out to 60 miles from the center," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
Dorian 11 am Thurs Sat photo
This image, taken around 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, Sept. 5, 2019, shows Hurricane Dorian approaching the Carolina coast. High clouds from the hurricane were reaching as far north as the central Appalachians and southern New England. (NOAA/GOES-East)
The immediate coast from South Carolina to North Carolina can expect hurricane conditions with gusts at or above 74 mph, coastal flooding with a storm surge of 4-7 feet, torrential rainfall average 6-12 inches with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 inches.
AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno cautioned strongly that Dorian would make a landfall in North Carolina as the storm turns northeastward. By this point, Dorian will be a Category 2 hurricane.
"It's the three capes of North Carolina where I think we will get a landfall, or within 20 to 30 miles: Cape Fear, Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras," Rayno said.
Winds will be high enough along the Carolina coast to cause widespread tree damage and power outages with some property damage.
On Thursday evening, over 200,000 electric customers across counties near the coast of South Carolina were without power.
Dorian wind 3 pm
Dorian has begun to produce brief, spin-up tornadoes in eastern North Carolina. While the majority of these tornadoes will be of EF-0, or EF-1 strength, they can be strong enough to knock over trees and damage roofs well inland of the coast.
Dorian Wind 3 pm
Wave action can result in water damage above the predicted 4- to 7-foot storm surge.
The storm surge can also be locally higher along some of the back bays and tidal rivers where water rainfall and runoff meet up with wind-driven water.
As anticipated, portions of Charleston, South Carolina, were experiencing significant inundation on Thursday morning. Several other communities prone to coastal flooding along the Carolina, and southeastern Virginia coast are likely to be inundated from Dorian's storm surge.
Dorian Impact East 3 pm
Coastal areas from South Carolina to southeastern Virginia can expect strong tropical storm conditions. In this swath, sporadic power outages and tree damage are likely with minor property damage.
Some roads to the barrier islands in the region will be cut off due to high water and powerful winds. Each high tide cycle will bring progressively higher water levels until the storm passes by to the northeast of a location.
Damaging winds, moderate flooding and storm surge are expected along the coast of the southeastern United States. As a result, Dorian's impact is projected to be a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.
Along the coast, the long-duration high water levels and pounding waves will result in moderate to major beach erosion.
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No one should venture into the surf in this swath as well as areas through the mid-Atlantic and as far south as southeastern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas due to the high frequency of strong rip currents and powerful waves that can cause serious injury or worse.
While overall conditions, especially the extent and magnitude of river flooding will generally be less severe than that of Matthew, people should not venture out during the storm, and those living in flood-prone areas should heed evacuation orders.
Matthew stalled over the Carolinas. Dorian will pick up forward speed, which will produce substantially less rain on the coast and across the interior, when compared to Matthew.
dorian flood graphic
Still, where spiral bands linger for a time and create a fire hose-effect, rainfall can ramp up exponentially at a fast pace and lead to major flooding.
While some rain will fall on Raleigh, North Carolina, and a gusty shower or thunderstorm may sweep across the Charlotte, North Carolina, and Columbia, South Carolina, areas, no rain associated directly with Dorian will fall on Atlanta, Dothan, Alabama, and Tallahassee, Florida.
As the storm pulls away to the northeast over the Atlantic Ocean late this week, northwest winds are likely to push water toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina from Pamlico Sound. This can cause significant coastal flooding as well.
Dorian will bring some rain, wind and coastal problems to the mid-Atlantic and New England to end this week. The storm may strike Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Canada, directly this weekend.
The weather will improve from south to north across Florida into Friday, across Georgia on Friday and the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia this weekend. However, for a time, tropical storm conditions may persist, even if the sun makes an appearance.
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