Tropical disturbance to produce drenching storms in northern Caribbean

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

A tropical disturbance or tropical wave will travel westward across the Caribbean Sea and cause drenching showers and thunderstorms over the islands this week.

This feature, which is sometimes the precursor to tropical depressions and storms is not expected to develop over the next couple of days due to wind shear and proximity to land. However, that may not be the case later this week.

This image, taken on Sunday, July 28, 2019, shows a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern end of the Caribbean Sea and is associated with a tropical disturbance or wave. (NOAA / Satellite)

The feature will bring the risk of flash flooding and dangerous squalls for beach and small craft interests.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the feature will spread westward from the Leeward Islands on Monday to Puerto Rico from late Monday to Wednesday.

As the feature continues to move in a west-to-northwest path, showers and thunderstorms will pulse across Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas at midweek.

When the feature enters the waters east of Florida and around the central Bahamas, conditions may change enough allow for slow organization and strengthening.

At this time, there is a 20% chance of the feature developing into a tropical depression later this week.

If if a tropical depression or storm were to come about of the feature, there is no guarantee the system would reach the mainland of the United States.

It is possible the system takes a curved path over the western Atlantic and then heads out to sea later next week.

Interests in the northern Caribbean, the Bahamas and the southeastern U.S. mainly should monitor the progress of the feature in the coming days.

RELATED: 
AccuWeather's 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast 
Follow these water safety tips to enjoy safe swimming this summer 
Could Hawaii face impacts from newly formed Tropical Storm Erick?

Vast areas of wind shear and dry air have been largely inhibiting tropical development over the Atlantic Basin this season so far, which is often the case.

However, as August progresses, these inhibiting factors tend to shrink in size, with water temperatures over the basin peak.

Tropical waves that emerge from the west coast of Africa become the leading source of tropical storm formation during the heart of the hurricane season, which peaks in September.

Download the free AccuWeather app to keep track of the latest tropical activity. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.