Tropical depression to unload heavy rain, gusty winds on China, Vietnam

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

A tropical depression which formed west of the Philippines will have ideal conditions to further strengthen before reaching southeast China later this week.

Warm ocean water and low wind shear will allow for gradual strengthening as it moves west-northwestward through the middle of the week. The window for strengthening will only last through Wednesday before interaction with land begins to have a negative effect on the storm.

AccuWeather meteorologists expect this tropical depression to strengthen into a tropical storm and be given the name Wipha before the end of the day on Wednesday, local time.

Regardless of strength, areas of southeast China will begin to feel the storm's impacts as early as Tuesday night as the tropical system becomes better organized across the South China Sea.

Locations from southeast China into northern Vietnam and northern Laos will need to be on alert for potential flooding downpours and a heightened risk for mudslides. Locations from northern Hainan Island to the Leizhou Peninsula may take a direct hit from this storm on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning with a second landfall possible in Guangxi or northern Vietnam.

Heavy rainfall will be the most widespread concern with this tropical threat as downpours can lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Total rainfall of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) is expected across the region with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 380 mm (15 inches).

Rough seas will also be stirred and create dangers for boaters and swimmers across the South China Sea from the Philippines to China. The Gulf of Tonkin will also be at risk for the same hazards.

The extent of wind damage will depend on the storm's track and peak intensity; however, at this time the threat for damaging winds extends from northern Hainan Island to southwest Guangdong, the coast of Guangxi and coastal locations of northeast Vietnam.

Sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph) are possible with gusts of 80-95 km/h (50-60 mph) in exposed coastal locations near and along the track of the storm.

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The worst impacts from this storm are likely to bypass Hong Kong to the south and west. Regardless, rain bands from this storm can impact the city from Wednesday into Friday.

Brief periods of intense rainfall and gusty winds are expected, resulting in localized flooding and travel delays at times.

Satellite image showing showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical depression over the South China Sea on Tuesday, local time. (Japan Meteorological Agency/Satellite image)

For anyone in the path of this developing tropical threat, the time to prepare for this storm is right now. Heed all advice from local government officials and evacuate if asked. Keep gas tanks filled and cell phones charged.

Despite the storm tracking away from the Philippines, bands of rain will batter western areas of Luzon, including Manila, into this weekend. Localized flooding and travel disruptions are possible each day.

Additional tropical development is expected across the West Pacific during the first half of August with the potential for the first typhoon since Wutip in late February.

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