Coastal Flood Statement Start End Saturday, January 1, 5:00 AM EST Saturday, January 1, 8:00 AM EST

 ...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

  * WHAT...Up to one foot of inundation above ground level expected in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline. * WHERE...Richmond (Staten Island) and Kings (Brooklyn) Counties. * WHEN...From late tonight through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Brief minor flooding of the more vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Localized minor coastal flooding is possible during Sunday morning's high tide. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded roadways. && Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour. GREAT KILLS HARBOR AT GREAT KILLS NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.2 FT, MODERATE 8.2 FT, MAJOR 9.2 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.9 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 3.9 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 31/05 AM 7.1/ 7.6 1.8/ 2.2 1.2/ 1.7 1 MINOR 31/06 PM 5.9/ 6.4 0.6/ 1.1 1.3/ 1.8 0-1 NONE 01/06 AM 7.2/ 7.7 1.9/ 2.3 1.1/ 1.6 1 MINOR 01/07 PM 5.9/ 6.4 0.6/ 1.1 1.2/ 1.7 1 NONE 02/07 AM 7.5/ 8.0 2.2/ 2.7 1.2/ 1.7 1 MINOR 02/07 PM 5.7/ 6.2 0.5/ 1.0 1.1/ 1.6 1 NONE KILL VAN KULL AT BERGEN POINT NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.2 FT, MODERATE 8.5 FT, MAJOR 9.6 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.1 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 31/06 AM 7.1/ 7.6 1.6/ 2.0 1.2/ 1.7 0 MINOR 31/06 PM 6.1/ 6.6 0.6/ 1.1 1.3/ 1.8 0 NONE 01/07 AM 7.4/ 7.9 1.9/ 2.3 1.2/ 1.7 0 MINOR 01/07 PM 6.2/ 6.8 0.8/ 1.3 1.3/ 1.8 0 NONE 02/07 AM 7.6/ 8.1 2.1/ 2.6 1.2/ 1.7 0 MINOR 02/07 PM 5.9/ 6.4 0.4/ 0.9 1.1/ 1.6 1 NONE NEW YORK HARBOR AT THE BATTERY NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.2 FT, MODERATE 8.5 FT, MAJOR 9.6 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.2 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.6 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 31/06 AM 6.9/ 7.4 1.9/ 2.3 1.5/ 2.0 0 NONE 31/06 PM 5.7/ 6.2 0.7/ 1.1 1.3/ 1.8 0 NONE 01/06 AM 6.5/ 7.0 1.5/ 2.0 0.9/ 1.4 0 NONE 01/07 PM 5.7/ 6.2 0.8/ 1.3 1.3/ 1.8 0 NONE 02/07 AM 6.9/ 7.4 1.9/ 2.3 1.1/ 1.6 1 NONE 02/07 PM 5.5/ 6.0 0.5/ 1.0 1.2/ 1.7 1 NONE ROCKAWAY INLET NY NEAR FLOYD BENNETT FIELD NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.3 FT, MODERATE 8.3 FT, MAJOR 9.3 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 31/05 AM 7.1/ 7.6 1.5/ 2.0 1.2/ 1.7 1 MINOR 31/06 PM 6.1/ 6.6 0.5/ 1.0 1.3/ 1.8 1 NONE 01/06 AM 7.4/ 7.9 1.8/ 2.2 1.2/ 1.7 1 MINOR 01/07 PM 6.2/ 6.7 0.6/ 1.1 1.3/ 1.8 1-2 NONE 02/07 AM 7.6/ 8.1 2.0/ 2.5 1.2/ 1.7 2 MINOR 02/07 PM 6.2/ 6.7 0.6/ 1.1 1.2/ 1.7 2 NONE JAMAICA BAY AT INWOOD NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.5 FT, MODERATE 8.2 FT, MAJOR 9.0 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.3 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 31/06 AM 7.6/ 8.1 1.7/ 2.2 1.1/ 1.6 0 MINOR 31/06 PM 6.4/ 6.9 0.5/ 1.0 1.2/ 1.7 0 NONE 01/07 AM 7.5/ 8.0 1.6/ 2.0 0.7/ 1.1 0 MINOR 01/07 PM 6.5/ 7.0 0.6/ 1.1 1.2/ 1.7 0 NONE 02/07 AM 7.4/ 7.9 1.5/ 2.0 0.6/ 1.1 0 MINOR 02/08 PM 6.2/ 6.8 0.4/ 0.9 0.8/ 1.3 0 NONE

Coastal Flood Statement Start End Saturday, January 1, 5:00 AM EST Saturday, January 1, 8:00 AM EST

 ...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

  * WHAT...Up to one foot of inundation above ground level expected in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline. * WHERE...Richmond (Staten Island) and Kings (Brooklyn) Counties. * WHEN...From late tonight through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Brief minor flooding of the more vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Localized minor coastal flooding is possible during Sunday morning's high tide. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded roadways. && Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour. GREAT KILLS HARBOR AT GREAT KILLS NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.2 FT, MODERATE 8.2 FT, MAJOR 9.2 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.9 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 3.9 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 31/05 AM 7.1/ 7.6 1.8/ 2.2 1.2/ 1.7 1 MINOR 31/06 PM 5.9/ 6.4 0.6/ 1.1 1.3/ 1.8 0-1 NONE 01/06 AM 7.2/ 7.7 1.9/ 2.3 1.1/ 1.6 1 MINOR 01/07 PM 5.9/ 6.4 0.6/ 1.1 1.2/ 1.7 1 NONE 02/07 AM 7.5/ 8.0 2.2/ 2.7 1.2/ 1.7 1 MINOR 02/07 PM 5.7/ 6.2 0.5/ 1.0 1.1/ 1.6 1 NONE KILL VAN KULL AT BERGEN POINT NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.2 FT, MODERATE 8.5 FT, MAJOR 9.6 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.1 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 31/06 AM 7.1/ 7.6 1.6/ 2.0 1.2/ 1.7 0 MINOR 31/06 PM 6.1/ 6.6 0.6/ 1.1 1.3/ 1.8 0 NONE 01/07 AM 7.4/ 7.9 1.9/ 2.3 1.2/ 1.7 0 MINOR 01/07 PM 6.2/ 6.8 0.8/ 1.3 1.3/ 1.8 0 NONE 02/07 AM 7.6/ 8.1 2.1/ 2.6 1.2/ 1.7 0 MINOR 02/07 PM 5.9/ 6.4 0.4/ 0.9 1.1/ 1.6 1 NONE NEW YORK HARBOR AT THE BATTERY NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.2 FT, MODERATE 8.5 FT, MAJOR 9.6 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.2 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.6 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 31/06 AM 6.9/ 7.4 1.9/ 2.3 1.5/ 2.0 0 NONE 31/06 PM 5.7/ 6.2 0.7/ 1.1 1.3/ 1.8 0 NONE 01/06 AM 6.5/ 7.0 1.5/ 2.0 0.9/ 1.4 0 NONE 01/07 PM 5.7/ 6.2 0.8/ 1.3 1.3/ 1.8 0 NONE 02/07 AM 6.9/ 7.4 1.9/ 2.3 1.1/ 1.6 1 NONE 02/07 PM 5.5/ 6.0 0.5/ 1.0 1.2/ 1.7 1 NONE ROCKAWAY INLET NY NEAR FLOYD BENNETT FIELD NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.3 FT, MODERATE 8.3 FT, MAJOR 9.3 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 31/05 AM 7.1/ 7.6 1.5/ 2.0 1.2/ 1.7 1 MINOR 31/06 PM 6.1/ 6.6 0.5/ 1.0 1.3/ 1.8 1 NONE 01/06 AM 7.4/ 7.9 1.8/ 2.2 1.2/ 1.7 1 MINOR 01/07 PM 6.2/ 6.7 0.6/ 1.1 1.3/ 1.8 1-2 NONE 02/07 AM 7.6/ 8.1 2.0/ 2.5 1.2/ 1.7 2 MINOR 02/07 PM 6.2/ 6.7 0.6/ 1.1 1.2/ 1.7 2 NONE JAMAICA BAY AT INWOOD NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.5 FT, MODERATE 8.2 FT, MAJOR 9.0 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.3 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 31/06 AM 7.6/ 8.1 1.7/ 2.2 1.1/ 1.6 0 MINOR 31/06 PM 6.4/ 6.9 0.5/ 1.0 1.2/ 1.7 0 NONE 01/07 AM 7.5/ 8.0 1.6/ 2.0 0.7/ 1.1 0 MINOR 01/07 PM 6.5/ 7.0 0.6/ 1.1 1.2/ 1.7 0 NONE 02/07 AM 7.4/ 7.9 1.5/ 2.0 0.6/ 1.1 0 MINOR 02/08 PM 6.2/ 6.8 0.4/ 0.9 0.8/ 1.3 0 NONE

Scientists were first who dared to forecast 'an act of God'

 Up until March 25, 1948, such a force of nature was considered "not forecastable" by the government. But on that day, one historic weather forecast issued by two members of the Air Force changed everything.

By Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

On March 20, 1948, a destructive tornado rampaged through the Tinker Air Force Base, located southeast of Oklahoma City. At the time, the damage produced by the twister was the worst in state history, and it led to several fatalities. Photos of the base in the aftermath of the twister showed damaged planes, including some that had been hurled across the airfield like toys.  

While thunderstorms had been predicted by the meteorologists working that day, a threat of tornadoes had not been in the forecast. That’s because the tornado watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service today didn’t exist across the United States’ weather enterprise. According to a recollection of the disaster compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a panel commissioned to investigate the March 20 disaster referred to it as “an act of God” and noted, “it was not forecastable given the present state of the art."

Weather forecasters in the late 1940s didn’t have the supercomputers, satellite data or the advanced radar capabilities that are now used frequently when high-impact weather situations unfold. Forecasters at the time relied mainly on hand-drawn weather maps, data from weather balloons and a radar system that was originally intended for use on B-29 bombers, according to the Air Force.

On the surface, it seemed like a regular act of devastation caused by Mother Nature. However, two senior members of the Air Force who survived the damaging storm system that day would use their experience and weather knowledge to transform how severe weather was forecast. As part of a directive from Fred S. Borum, the commanding general of Oklahoma City Air Material Area, members of the weather station at the base were told to investigate the feasibility of issuing warnings for thunderstorms that could generate a tornado, according to NOAA.

A tornado left destruction behind at Tinker Air Force Base on March 20, 1948. (Photo/NOAA)

The men in charge of developing the first tornado forecast were Air Force Capt. Robert C. Miller and Major Ernest J. Fawbush. Rather than just forecasting thunderstorms, they would now try to predict which thunderstorms could spin up a dangerous twister and what areas were at the greatest risk, but their challenges were many and complex. According to NOAA, Miller and Fawbush would need to take into account surface and upper air data then determine the “existence of these parameters or the probability of their development,” while then using those parameters to highlight a specific area all while giving proper lead time for people to seek safety.

A day after the devasting strike on the Air Force base, the two got to work analyzing past tornadic outbreaks, as well as key weather data. They spent several days studying the weather patterns that preceded past outbreaks until they eventually diagnosed a synoptic pattern that looked eerily familiar.  

And their discovery couldn’t have come quickly enough.   

Damaged planes at Tinker Air Force Base on March 20, 1948. (Photo/NOAA)

On the morning of March 25, weather data showed a stark similarity to the conditions from five days earlier, the day the devastating tornado struck. But surely another tornado couldn’t impact the same area within a five-day stretch, could it?

Sure enough, it became clear to the forecasters that the atmospheric ingredients for another severe weather outbreak were taking shape. By late in the afternoon, a line of violent thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes was tracking through Oklahoma, with Tinker once again in the crosshairs. But thanks to the work of Miller and Fawbush, this time the base was prepared for a potential tornadic strike.

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The two presented the information to Borum earlier in the day and shared the startling revelation that tornado-producing storms could once again target the base. After digesting what Miller and Fawbush had told him, Borum had one simple question, according to NOAA: “Are you going to issue a tornado forecast?"

Answering "yes" to that question wasn’t so simple.

Not only had such a crucial forecast never been issued before, but the forecasters were also particularly concerned about an inaccurate forecast, or a “bust,” a term some meteorologists today still use when referring to forecasts that don’t pan out as expected. An inaccurate forecast could erode trust or confidence from the public, they thought. “No one has ever issued an operational tornado forecast,” Miller told Borum.

Air Force Maj. Ernest J. Fawbush (left) and Capt. Robert C Miller. (Photo/United States Air Force)

"You are about to set a precedent," Borum replied, according to NOAA.

The forecast was typed up and distributed shortly before 3 p.m. local time that day. It warned of dangerous thunderstorms passing by the base around 6 p.m. It was time to wait and see how the weather would unfold. Following the forecast, precautions were implemented.

A research paper on the 1948 tornado event, published by Robert Maddox and Charlie Crisp, two employees with the National Severe Storms Laboratory, deconstructed what went wrong and what went right over that five-day period. Maddox and Crisp concluded that, in addition to Miller and Fawbush having developed a way to track and warn of tornadoes, the severe weather mitigation plan setup around the base was crucial in avoiding a worse outcome.

Important equipment and aircraft were safely stowed away, and a number of employees on the base were also able to take shelter due to the implementation of the plan.

By 3:30 p.m., the line of thunderstorms had developed and was cruising toward Oklahoma City. But around 6 p.m., all that was in the area was quiet rumbles of thunder and light rain and wind, according to NOAA. Was the forecast a dud?

No.

Tornado damage at the Tinker Air Force Base on March 25, 1948. (Photo/NOAA)

A short while later, a news bulletin confirmed a damaging twister had struck the airfield. While there were considerable impacts that caused $6 million in damage at the time -- about $67.4 million in 2021 dollars, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics -- thanks to the forecast and tornado safety plan, it was less extensive than the March 20 event, which caused about $10 million (roughly $112 million today). And no lives were lost.

It was just the first of many life-saving tornado forecasts issued by Miller and Fawbush. Both of whom would soon become responsible for predicting tornadoes across much of the central U.S. and Air Force bases across the country as the heads of the newly-created Severe Weather Warning Center in 1951.

Operational meteorology had been changed for the better. Within several years of that momentous forecast, the U.S. Weather Bureau, now the National Weather Service, would issue its first public tornado “bulletin,” a precursor to today’s watches and warnings that help protect lives and property all around the United States.

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Coastal Flood Advisory Start End Saturday, January 1, 5:00 AM EST Saturday, January 1, 8:00 AM EST

 ...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING... ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY...

  * WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to one foot of inundation above ground level expected in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline. For the Coastal Flood Statement, up to one half foot of inundation above ground level in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline. * WHERE...Southern Queens and Southern Nassau Counties. * WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 5 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday. For the Coastal Flood Statement, until 7 AM EST this morning. * IMPACTS...Minor flooding is expected in the more vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline. Some roads and low lying properties including parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes and businesses with basements near the waterfront will experience minor flooding. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Widespread minor coastal flooding is possible during Sunday morning's high tide. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. && Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour. ROCKAWAY INLET NY NEAR FLOYD BENNETT FIELD NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.3 FT, MODERATE 8.3 FT, MAJOR 9.3 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 31/05 AM 7.1/ 7.6 1.5/ 2.0 1.2/ 1.7 1 MINOR 31/06 PM 6.1/ 6.6 0.5/ 1.0 1.3/ 1.8 1 NONE 01/06 AM 7.4/ 7.9 1.8/ 2.2 1.2/ 1.7 1 MINOR 01/07 PM 6.2/ 6.7 0.6/ 1.1 1.3/ 1.8 1-2 NONE 02/07 AM 7.6/ 8.1 2.0/ 2.5 1.2/ 1.7 2 MINOR 02/07 PM 6.2/ 6.7 0.6/ 1.1 1.2/ 1.7 2 NONE JAMAICA BAY AT INWOOD NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.5 FT, MODERATE 8.2 FT, MAJOR 9.0 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.3 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 31/06 AM 7.6/ 8.1 1.7/ 2.2 1.1/ 1.6 0 MINOR 31/06 PM 6.4/ 6.9 0.5/ 1.0 1.2/ 1.7 0 NONE 01/07 AM 7.5/ 8.0 1.6/ 2.0 0.7/ 1.1 0 MINOR 01/07 PM 6.5/ 7.0 0.6/ 1.1 1.2/ 1.7 0 NONE 02/07 AM 7.4/ 7.9 1.5/ 2.0 0.6/ 1.1 0 MINOR 02/08 PM 6.2/ 6.8 0.4/ 0.9 0.8/ 1.3 0 NONE EAST ROCKAWAY INLET AT ATLANTIC BEACH NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 7.0 FT, MAJOR 8.0 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.0 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 3.0 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 31/05 AM 6.1/ 6.6 1.1/ 1.6 0.8/ 1.3 1 MINOR 31/05 PM 5.2/ 5.7 0.2/ 0.7 1.2/ 1.7 1-2 NONE 01/05 AM 6.1/ 6.6 1.1/ 1.6 1.0/ 1.5 2 MINOR 01/06 PM 5.2/ 5.7 0.2/ 0.8 1.2/ 1.7 2 NONE 02/07 AM 6.0/ 6.5 1.0/ 1.5 0.4/ 0.9 3 MINOR 02/07 PM 5.2/ 5.7 0.2/ 0.8 1.1/ 1.6 3-4 NONE REYNOLDS CHANNEL AT POINT LOOKOUT NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.8 FT, MODERATE 6.8 FT, MAJOR 7.8 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 31/04 AM 5.7/ 6.2 1.1/ 1.6 1.6/ 2.0 2 MINOR 31/05 PM 5.1/ 5.6 0.4/ 0.9 1.6/ 2.0 2 NONE 01/06 AM 5.7/ 6.2 1.0/ 1.5 1.2/ 1.7 2 MINOR 01/06 PM 5.1/ 5.6 0.4/ 0.9 1.6/ 2.0 2-3 NONE 02/07 AM 5.7/ 6.2 1.1/ 1.6 1.1/ 1.6 3-4 MINOR 02/07 PM 5.2/ 5.7 0.5/ 1.0 1.6/ 2.0 4-5 NONE HUDSON BAY AT FREEPORT NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 6.5 FT, MAJOR 7.2 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.4 FT, MODERATE 1.9 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 31/06 AM 5.6/ 6.1 1.0/ 1.5 2.0/ 2.5 0 NONE 31/06 PM 5.0/ 5.5 0.4/ 0.9 2.1/ 2.6 0 NONE 01/07 AM 5.5/ 6.0 0.9/ 1.4 1.7/ 2.2 0 NONE 01/07 PM 5.1/ 5.6 0.5/ 1.0 2.2/ 2.7 0 NONE 02/06 AM 5.5/ 6.0 0.9/ 1.4 2.2/ 2.7 0 NONE 02/07 PM 4.9/ 5.4 0.2/ 0.8 2.2/ 2.7 0 NONE

Wind-fueled fires destroy hundreds of homes in Boulder County, Colorado

 By Adriana Navarro, AccuWeather staff writer

Published Dec. 30, 2021 8:11 PM EST | Updated Dec. 31, 2021 9:33 AM EST

Fires fanned by strong wind gusts prompted evacuation orders for about 35,000 people in Boulder County, Colorado, Thursday.

Officials said the rapidly moving fires burned an estimated 580 homes, as well as a hotel and a shopping center, according to The Associated Press. At least seven people have been injured, including a first responder, Boulder County Sheriff Joe Pelle said, according to the AP.

Of the two notable fires, the one which officials are referring to as the Marshall Fire started near Marshall Drive and Cherryvale Road near Superior and Louisville, south of the city of Boulder, according to the Boulder Emergency Operations Center (EOC). It was estimated to have reached 1,600 acres.

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Homes burn as wildfires rip through a development Thursday, Dec. 30, 2021, in Superior, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

The Fire Command issued an order of evacuation for the City of Louisville, a town of about 20,000 people, as the fire developed into what the National Weather Service called a "life-threatening situation" on Thursday. Superior, located about 20 miles northwest of Denver and home to some 13,000 people, was also ordered to evacuate.

"Several hours ago, several fires along the front range near Boulder, near Superior and Louisville, have sparked up," AccuWeather National Reporter Tony Laubach reported against a backdrop of smoke and intense wind. A 115-mph wind gust was recorded in Rocky Flats, Colorado, a few miles south of Superior, as strong winds battled firefighting efforts.

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis declared a state of emergency Thursday afternoon, allowing the state to access disaster emergency funds and services.

At least six people were hospitalized with burns at UCHealth Broomfield Hospital, a spokesperson told USA Today. Avista Adventist Hospital in Louisville was evacuated, save for some staff and patients who couldn't be moved, Times-Call reported.

As of 7 a.m. Friday morning, local time, close to 15,000 customers were without power in Boulder County, with a total of 15,265 customers without power throughout the state, according to PowerOutage.US.

Evacuations were underway at 96th Street and Dillon near Superior where Laubach reported westward traffic, consisting of people returning from work and trying to get back to their homes, was blocked by crews.

North of Boulder, the Middle Fork Fire, was reported near North Foothills Highway and Middle Fork Road. Earlier on Thursday, the Boulder County Sheriff's Office noted reports of downed power lines and transformers blowing, causing several small grass fires. However, the official causes of the Middle Fork Fire and the Marshall Fire have not been determined.

AccuWeather meteorologists say that Mother Nature could provide significant aid to firefighting efforts in the coming days as a major storm evolves over the middle of the nation.

"Moisture that arrives in the area into the weekend can help to give firefighters an upper hand as they continue to battle the blaze," AccuWeather Meteorologist Mary Gilbert said.

Forecasters say it will be cold enough for all snow to fall in the area with 6 inches or more of accumulation possible. This amount of snowfall should help to extinguish most, if not all of the region's active blazes.

Additional reporting by AccuWeather National Reporter Tony Laubach

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Wintry blast to continue through New Year’s in Seattle, Portland

 By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Dec. 28, 2021 2:27 PM EST | Updated Dec. 30, 2021 9:30 AM EST

As Old Man Winter continues lobbing heavy snowballs at Seattle, Washington, and Portland, Oregon, a frigid blast of cold air is set to rush into the Pacific Northwest this week, making for the region's coldest New Year's Eve in years, AccuWeather experts say.

Seattle is only a few days removed from experiencing its lowest temperature since 2010, when a low of 17 degrees Fahrenheit was recorded on Dec. 26 as snow fell across the city and the Interstate 5 corridor.

That cold and snowy pattern is expected to continue well into the start of 2022 in the Northwest, forecasters say.

Motorists and pedestrians can expect more rounds of slippery travel conditions through this weekend. Vast stretches of interstates 5, 84 and 90 will fall within the targeted range of the wintry onslaught. Meteorologists say drivers venturing over these roads should prepare to encounter areas of snow and ice during the storms. Chains may be required when venturing over the passes in the Cascades.

Even with two days left in December, locations in Seattle and Portland had already topped their average snowfall totals for the month. As of Dec. 29, Seattle has accumulated 5.8 inches of snow, 3.4 times its normal December amount, while Portland has totaled 3.6 inches, 2.9 times its December average.

"Much of the lower elevations in the I-5 corridor from Washington to Oregon can expect 1-3 inches of snow with locally higher amounts through Thursday evening," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist John Feerick said.

Snowfall will tend to be higher over hilly areas and at intermediate elevations in the Cascades and Olympics. Over the passes in the Cascades, 3-6 inches of snow is in store while the high country will likely tack on another 1-2 feet of snow on top of their deep snowpack. In parts of the high country of the Cascades, there is upwards of 8 feet of snow already on the ground with local amounts likely pushing 15 feet.

Estimated snow cover (inches) as of Dec. 30, 2021. (NOAA/USDA Forestry Service)

Along the immediate coasts of Washington and Oregon, a mixture of rain and snow is forecast with local amounts of a coating to an inch possible with this latest storm.

The stormy pattern is expected to take a breather toward the end of the week, with the next storm likely to hold off for New Year's Eve celebrations. Conditions are likely to be dry but very cold, so people who plan on spending time outdoors in the Northwest should bundle up.

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"This New Year's Eve is likely to be the coldest in years for the region," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

Temperatures will dip into the single digits and teens F over areas east of the Cascades in Washington and Oregon by midnight Friday night. However, it will be cold over coastal areas of both states with midnight temperatures ranging from the lower to mid-20s in northwestern Washington to the upper 20s and lower 30s in southwestern Oregon.

A normal high in Seattle on Dec. 31 is 47 F while a typical low is 37 F. In Portland, the normal high is 46 while the normal low is 36. At this time, a daytime high near 30 is forecast for Seattle, while Portland will likely record temperatures in the upper 30s.

It may not be until Sunday and Monday that the next storm rolls through and returns the chance for snow once again in some of the lower elevations west of the Cascades.

AccuWeather's long-range team of meteorologists expects the general pattern of below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation to continue into mid-January across the West. The pattern will continue to hammer away at the long-term drought over much of the West. However, the risk of flooding and mudslides will also exist where rain falls at intermediate elevations during brief intrusions of warm air.

With more snow to come through the end of 2021, this month is likely to finish among the top snowiest Decembers on record in both cities. In order for Seattle to move into the top 10 snowiest list, it must reach 6.4 inches, a total which was last set in December 1964. Portland has already moved into the top 10, with 3.6 inches of snow so far this month, making it the 8th snowiest December on record. The snowiest December on record for Seattle-Tacoma International Airport occurred in 1968 when 22.1 inches of snow fell, while Portland's snowiest December occurred in 2008 when 19 inches were recorded.

Both Seattle and Portland have a long way to go to record their snowiest winters on record. At Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, the title belongs to the 1968-69 winter season with 67.5 inches of snow. At Portland International Airport, the snowiest winter on record was in 1949-50 with 44.5 inches. Seattle receives an average of 6.2 inches of snow each year, while Portland picks up 4.3 inches. Both locations are likely to reach close to their seasonal averages by the end of December.

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